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目前在Excel环境下最常用的风险分析工具有Crystal Ball、Riskmaster以及@risk三种，这三种软件都是以加载项方式挂在Excel之下运行的。
通过它们可以很方便地对建立在Excel中的运算模型进行蒙特卡洛分析，并得到分析结果。
本文的计算实例将采用Crystal Ball（以下简称CB）软件进行建模运算分析。
【软件】Crystal Ball (水晶球)风险分析2008年07月04日星期五 14:08从现在开始做有依据的决策。
在Crystal Ball专业版本中，决策的结果不是偶然的，而是建立靠的计算结果上。
自1986年以来，美国Decisioneering公司向用户提供了项目风险分析评估和策软件工具来帮助理解风险的大小并帮您做出较好的决策。
在世界500强中有85%的公司，以及在美国50个顶尖MBA学校中有40个都使用Crystal 进行风险管理，从而做出最佳决策，使得股东财富达到最大化。
对风险分析软件领导者的信任会为满意的结果。
1、强大的功能特点——更为准确的结果Crystal Ball 专业版本是目前世界上集风险分析和预测评估于一体的最综合的一套软件。
通过析和优化的结合，Crystal Ball 专业版本不仅帮助用户了解风险，而且帮助他们做出正确的决策。
本包含了标准版本的所有特色和优点，并且加强了帮助用户做出更好决策的功能。
由于该程序完全于Microsoft Excel电子表格的附加模块，所以它很好地拓展了Excel 电子数据表库模型及功能。
2、准确地预测未来Crystal Ball 专业版中带有的CB PredictorTM 采用时间序列预测方法,通过历史资料来研究趋势，周期性和随机性。
由于每种预测都具有风险，所以CB PredictorTM 完美地结合于Crysta 使用户充分了解预测分析的风险。
CB PredictorTM 还可以使用户非常便捷地建立回归模型，利用据资料来进行预测。
4.将每条需求最终的估算规模相加就得到项目的总规模。
1.首先依据项目特点和组织要求，固定项目的过程：
（baas固定了编码方式为“新开发无复用”，因为新项目，公司无复用的组件可用）
（ashare固定了设计方法“SA/SD”，因为本项目从其它项目移植而来,基于项目特性选择；
代码评审：“邮件评审”，因为本项目前期需求投入加大，节约开发时间；
系统测试:：“测试一轮”，因为本项目前期需求和实现的工作量加大,前期保证了质量）
（快递柜固定设计评审的方式“审查”，为了评审时沟通的方
便和更有效的发现问题）
（熊猫电子固定了编码方式“移植”，因为该项目中有类似项目模块代码可供参考复用）
2.将上一步估算的总规模（代码行），填在预测模型中，用crystal ball运行模型，选择条件（baas、快递柜、ashare是“成本最低”，熊猫电子是“生产率优先”），运行1万次，结果按照80％的信心指数，得到项目建议的子过程，再根据项目特点进行确认是否可行，如果有其他要求可以再继续固定子过程重复上面的活动，如果可行，则选择系统建议的子过程作为项目的子过程。
3.将裁剪原因和结果记录在《项目过程定义》中，对于不属于项目的关键子过程的可选过程，项目经理直接将裁剪原因和结果记录在《项目过程定义》。
《项目过程定义》
预测模型结果
《量化项目管理计划》。
Crystal Ball 介绍Crystal Ball(CB)是基于PC Windows平台而开发的简单且非常实用的风险分析和评估软件。
面向各类商务、科学和技术工程领域，用户界面友好,是基于图表进行预测和风险分析。
CB 在微软Excel 应用软件上运行，使用蒙特卡罗（Monte Carlo）模拟法对某个特定状况预测所有可能的结果，运用图表对分析进行总结，并显示每一个结果的概率。
除了描述统计量、趋势图和相关变量分配，CB还进行敏感性分析，让用户决定真正导致结果的因素。
如今 CB 已是全世界商业风险分析和决策评估软件中的佼佼者。
Crystal Ball专业版是市面上以Excel为本的风险分析及预测工具中最全面的套装软件。
其功能和特点不仅早已得到广大用户的认同，并获得许多正在考虑购买相关软件产品新用户的青睐和首选。
85%<<财富>>评出的全球500强大企业中早已有400家使用 Crystal Ball 软件作为他们进行商务决策，项目投资风险分析的工具。
再者,美国前50名最佳MBA 商学院，已有40所也用Crystal Ball作为教研和商业性课题的工具。
用户之一世界着名的哈佛大学商学院把 Crystal Ball 列为可用于计划金融的软件 (Project Finance Software)。
因为财政计划,金融投资方面的风险分析是CB 软件功能的一部分。
Crystal Ball之前是美国Decisioneering公司的产品，Decisioneering在2007年被Hyperion公司收购，Hyperion 公司之后又被Oracle收购，所以Crystal Ball目前的发行商是Oracle。
Crystal Ball的用途：DFSS，过程研究，过程优化，现有过程的模拟改变，公差分析，设计分析，原料筛选，容量设计，资源分配与存货优化，约束后的项目筛选，预防性维护优化，成本预算，可靠性分析，排队过程分析，建筑项目资金预算的偶然性分析，商业过程模拟，工程设计与预测，供求预测，制造供应链问题的减少与存货控制，新产品商品化的资金模型。
R E L E A S E11.1.1.3D E V E L O P E R'S G U I D ECrystal Ball Developer's Guide, 11.1.1.3Copyright © 1988, 2009, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Authors: EPM Information Development TeamThe Programs (which include both the software and documentation) contain proprietary information; they are provided under a license agreement containing restrictions on use and disclosure and are also protected by copyright, patent, and other intellectual and industrial property laws. Reverse engineering, disassembly, or decompilation of the Programs, except to the extent required to obtain interoperability with other independently created software or as specified by law, is prohibited.The information contained in this document is subject to change without notice. If you find any problems in the documentation, please report them to us in writing. This document is not warranted to be error-free. 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Other names may be trademarks of their respective owners.The Programs may provide links to Web sites and access to content, products, and services from third parties. Oracle is not responsible for the availability of, or any content provided on, third-party Web sites. You bear all risks associated with the use of such content. If you choose to purchase any products or services from a third party, the relationship is directly between you and the third party. Oracle is not responsible for: (a) the quality of third-party products or services; or (b) fulfilling any of the terms of the agreement with the third party, including delivery of products or services and warranty obligations related to purchased products or services. Oracle is not responsible for any loss or damage of any sort that you may incur from dealing with any third party.ContentsChapter 1. Welcome (19)About the Oracle Crystal Ball Developer Kit (19)Who Should Use the Crystal Ball Developer Kit (20)What You Will Need (20)How This Manual is Organized (20)Documentation Changes (21)Technical Support and More (21)Chapter 2. Crystal Ball Developer Kit Overview (23)Introduction (23)How to Use the Crystal Ball Developer Kit (24)Calling Crystal Ball From Visual Basic For Applications (VBA) Programs (24)Calling Crystal Ball From an External Visual Basic (VB) Program (25)Creating an Excel Add-in (26)Using Developer Kit Macro Calls in User-defined Macros (26)A Note About Defaults and Write-Protection (26)Putting Custom Applications into Runtime Mode (26)Alphabetic List of Crystal Ball Macro Calls (27)Functions For Use in Excel Models (32)Opening and Closing Crystal Ball (32)Setting Up and Running Simulations (33)Controlling Crystal Ball Chart Windows (34)Managing Charts (35)Handling Crystal Ball Results (35)Setting and Getting Preferences (36)Crystal Ball Tools (37)Special Calls (37)Chapter 3. Crystal Ball Macro Calls (39)Introduction (42)CB.AboutBox (42)CB.AboutBox Example (42)Contents iiiCB.AlertOnArgumentError (42)CB.AlertOnArgumentError Example (43)CB.AlertOnArgumentError Related Calls (43)CB.AlertOnMacroResultError (43)CB.AlertOnMacroResultError Example (43)CB.AlertOnMacroResultError Related Calls (43)CB.AlertOnObsolete (43)CB.AlertOnObsolete Example (44)CB.AlertOnObsolete Related Calls (44)CB.AssumPrefsND (44)CB.AssumPrefsND Example (45)CB.AutoDownshift (45)CB.AutoDownshift Example 1 (45)CB.AutoDownshift Example 2 (46)CB.BatchFit (46)CB.BatchFit Example (46)CB.BatchFit Related Calls (46)CB.BatchFitND (46)CB.BatchFitND Example 1 (54)CB.BatchFitND Example 2 (55)CB.BatchFitND Related Calls (55)CB.Bootstrap (55)CB.Bootstrap Example (56)CB.Bootstrap Related Calls (56)CB.BootstrapND (56)CB.BootstrapND Example 1 (59)CB.BootstrapND Example 2 (59)CB.BootstrapND Related Calls (59)CB.CBLoaded (59)CB.CBLoaded Example (60)CB.CBLoaded Related Calls (60)CB.CellPrefs (60)CB.CellPrefs Example (60)CB.CellPrefs Related Calls (60)CB.CellPrefsND (61)CB.CellPrefsND Example (63)CB.CellPrefsND Related Calls (63)CB.ChartPrefs (63)CB.ChartPrefs Example (64)iv ContentsCB.ChartPrefs Related Calls (64)CB.ChartPrefsND (64)CB.ChartPrefsND Example (67)CB.ChartPrefsND Related Calls (67)CB.CheckData (67)CB.CheckData Example (67)CB.CheckData Related Calls (68)CB.CheckDataND (68)CB.CheckDataND Example (68)CB.CheckDataND Related Calls (69)CB.ClearData (69)CB.ClearData Example (69)CB.ClearData Related Calls (69)CB.ClearDataND (70)CB.ClearDataND Example (70)CB.ClearDataND Related Calls (70)CB.CloseAllCharts (70)CB.CloseAllCharts Example (70)CB.CloseAllCharts Related Calls (71)CB.CloseChart (71)CB.CloseChart Example (71)CB.CloseChart Related Calls (71)CB.CloseFore (72)CB.CloseFore Example (72)CB.CloseFore Related Calls (72)CB.CloseSensitiv (72)CB.CloseSensitiv Example (72)CB.CloseSensitiv Related Calls (73)CB.CloseTrend (73)CB.CloseTrend Example (73)CB.CloseTrend Related Calls (73)CB.CopyData (74)CB.CopyData Example (74)CB.CopyData Related Calls (74)CB.CopyDataND (74)CB.CopyDataND Example (75)CB.CopyDataND Related Calls (75)CB.CopyScatter (75)CB.CopyScatter Example (75)Contents vCB.CopyScatter Related Calls (76)CB.CopySensitiv (76)CB.CopySensitiv Example (76)CB.CopySensitiv Related Calls (76)CB.CopyTrend (76)CB.CopyTrend Example (77)CB.CopyTrend Related Calls (77)CB.CorrelateND (77)CB.CorrelateND Example 1 (78)CB.CorrelateND Example 2 (78)CB.CorrelateND Example 3 (78)CB.CorrelateND Related Calls (78)CB.CreateChart (79)CB.CreateChart Example (79)CB.CreateChart Related Calls (79)CB.CreateRpt (80)CB.CreateRpt Example (80)CB.CreateRpt Related Calls (80)CB.CreateRptND (80)CB.CreateRptND Example 1 (89)CB.CreateRptND Example 2 (90)CB.CreateRptND Related Calls (90)CB.DataAnalysis (91)CB.DataAnalysis Example (91)CB.DataAnalysis Related Calls (91)CB.DataAnalysisND (91)CB.DataAnalysisND Example (95)CB.DataAnalysisND Related Calls (96)CB.DecisionTable (96)CB.DecisionTable Example (96)CB.DecisionTable Related Calls (96)CB.DecisionTableND (96)CB.DecisionTableND Example (98)CB.DecisionTableND Related Calls (99)CB.DefineAltParms (99)CB.DefineAltParms Example 1 (101)CB.DefineAltParms Example 2 (102)CB.DefineAltParms Example 3 (102)CB.DefineAltParms Related Calls (102)vi ContentsCB.DefineAssum (102)CB.DefineAssum Example 1 (103)CB.DefineAssum Example 2 (103)CB.DefineAssum Related Calls (103)CB.DefineAssumND (103)CB.DefineAssumND Example 1 (107)CB.DefineAssumND Example 2 (107)Defining Custom Distributions (107)CB.DefineAssumND Custom Distribution Example (108)CB.DefineAssumND Related Calls (108)CB.DefineDecVar (108)CB.DefineDecVar Example (108)CB.DefineDecVar Related Calls (109)CB.DefineDecVarND (109)CB.DefineDecVarND Example 1 (111)CB.DefineDecVarND Example 2 (111)CB.DefineDecVarND Example 3 (111)CB.DefineDecVarND Example 4 (111)CB.DefineDecVarND Example 5 (112)CB.DefineDecVarND Related Calls (112)CB.DefineFore (112)CB.DefineFore Example (113)CB.DefineFore Related Calls (113)CB.DefineForeND (113)CB.DefineForeND Example (114)CB.DefineForeND Related Calls (114)CB.DeleteChart (115)CB.DeleteChart Example (115)CB.DeleteChart Related Calls (115)CB.EnumAssum (115)CB.EnumAssum Example (116)CB.EnumAssum Related Calls (116)CB.EnumChart (117)CB.EnumChart Example (117)CB.EnumChart Related Calls (118)CB.EnumCorrelation (118)CB.EnumCorrelation Example 1 (119)CB.EnumCorrelation Example 2 (119)CB.EnumCorrelation Related Calls (120)Contents viiCB.EnumDecVar (120)CB.EnumDecVar Example (120)CB.EnumDecVar Related Calls (121)CB.EnumFore (121)CB.EnumFore Example (121)CB.EnumFore Related Calls (122)CB.ExtractData (122)CB.ExtractData Example (122)CB.ExtractData Related Calls (123)CB.ExtractDataND (123)CB.ExtractDataND Example 1 (130)CB.ExtractDataND Example 2 (130)CB.ExtractDataND Related Calls (130)CB.Fit (131)CB.Fit Example 1 (134)CB.Fit Example 2 (134)CB.Fit Related Calls (134)CB.FormatPrefs (135)CB.FormatPrefs Example (135)CB.FormatPrefs Related Calls (135)CB.FormatPrefsND (135)CB.FormatPrefsND Example 1 (137)CB.FormatPrefsND Example 2 (137)CB.FormatPrefsND Related Calls (138)CB.Freeze (138)CB.Freeze Example (138)CB.Freeze Related Calls (138)CB.FreezeND (138)CB.FreezeND Example (140)CB.FreezeND Related Calls (140)CB.GetAssum (140)CB.GetAssum Example 1 (142)CB.GetAssum Example 2 (142)CB.GetAssum Related Calls (142)CB.GetAssumPercent (143)CB.GetAssumPercent Example 1 (143)CB.GetAssumPercent Example 2 (144)CB.GetAssumPercent Related Calls (144)CB.GetBatchFitOption (144)viii ContentsCB.GetBatchFitOption Example 1 (148)CB.GetBatchFitOption Example 2 (148)CB.GetBatchFitOption Related Calls (148)CB.GetBootstrapOption (148)CB.GetBootstrapOption Example 1 (150)CB.GetBootstrapOption Example 2 (150)CB.GetBootstrapOption Related Calls (150)CB.GetCBAutoLoad (151)CB.GetCBAutoLoad Example (151)CB.GetCBAutoLoad Related Calls (151)CB.GetCertainty (151)CB.GetCertainty Example 1 (152)CB.GetCertainty Example 2 (152)CB.GetCertainty Related Calls (153)CB.GetCorrelation (153)CB.GetCorrelation Example (153)CB.GetCorrelation Related Calls (154)CB.GetDataAnalysisOption (154)CB.GetDataAnalysisOption Example 1 (156)CB.GetDataAnalysisOption Example 2 (156)CB.GetDataAnalysisOption Related Calls (156)CB.GetDecisionTableOption (156)CB.GetDecisionTableOption Example (158)CB.GetDecisionTableOption Related Calls (158)CB.GetDecVar (158)CB.GetDecVar Example (159)CB.GetDecVar Related Calls (160)CB.GetExcel2007ForegroundMode (160)CB.GetExcel2007ForegroundMode Example (160)CB.GetExcel2007ForegroundMode Related Calls (160)CB.GetFitParm (160)CB.GetFitParm Example (162)CB.GetFitParm Related Calls (162)CB.GetFore (162)CB.GetFore Example (164)CB.GetFore Related Calls (165)CB.GetForeData (165)CB.GetForeData Example 1 (165)CB.GetForeData Example 2 (166)Contents ixCB.GetForePercent (166)CB.GetForePercent Example 1 (166)CB.GetForePercent Example 2 (167)CB.GetForePercent Related Calls (167)CB.GetForeStat (167)CB.GetForeStat Example 1 (169)CB.GetForeStat Example 2 (169)CB.GetForeStat Related Calls (169)CB.GetLockFitParm (170)CB.GetLockFitParm Example (171)CB.GetLockFitParm Related Calls (171)CB.GetRunPrefs (172)CB.GetRunPrefs Example 1 (172)CB.GetRunPrefs Example 2 (172)CB.GetRunPrefs Related Calls (172)CB.GetTwoDSimulationOption (173)CB.GetTwoDSimulationOption Example 1 (176)CB.GetTwoDSimulationOption Example 2 (176)CB.GetTwoDSimulationOption Related Calls (176)CB.GetVersion (176)CB.GetVersion Example (177)CB.GetVersion Related Calls (178)CB.GetWorksheetVersion (178)CB.GetWorksheetVersion Example (178)CB.GetWorksheetVersion Related Calls (179)CB.IsCBObject (179)CB.IsCBObject Example (179)CB.IsCBObject Related Calls (180)CB.Iterations (180)CB.Iterations Example 1 (180)CB.Iterations Example 2 (180)CB.Iterations Related Call (180)CB.LockFitParm (181)CB.LockFitParm Example (182)CB.LockFitParm Related Calls (182)CB.MacroResult (182)CB.MacroResult Example (183)CB.MacroResult Related Call (183)CB.MacroResultDetail (184)x ContentsCB.MacroResultDetail Example (185)CB.MacroResultDetail Related Call (186)CB.OpenChart (186)CB.OpenChart Example 1 (187)CB.OpenChart Example 2 (187)CB.OpenChart Related Calls (187)CB.OpenFore (187)CB.OpenFore Example (188)CB.OpenFore Related Calls (188)CB.OpenSelection (188)CB.OpenSelection Example (188)CB.OpenSelection Related Calls (188)CB.OpenSensitiv (189)CB.OpenSensitiv Example (189)CB.OpenSensitiv Related Calls (189)CB.OpenTrend (189)CB.OpenTrend Example (190)CB.OpenTrend Related Calls (190)CB.PasteData (190)CB.PasteData Example 1 (190)CB.PasteData Example 2 (191)CB.PasteData Example 3 (191)CB.PasteData Related Calls (191)CB.Reset (191)CB.Reset Example (192)CB.Reset Related Calls (192)CB.ResetND (192)CB.ResetND Example (192)CB.ResetND Related Calls (192)CB.RestoreResults (193)CB.RestoreResults Example (193)CB.RestoreResults Related Calls (193)CB.RestoreResultsND (193)CB.RestoreResultsND Example (194)CB.RestoreResultsND Related Calls (194)CB.RunPrefs (194)CB.RunPrefs Example (194)CB.RunPrefs Related Calls (195)CB.RunPrefsND (195)Contents xiCB.RunPrefsND Example (199)CB.RunPrefsND Related Calls (200)CB.RuntimeMode (200)CB.RuntimeMode Example (200)CB.RuntimeMode Related Call (201)CB.SaveResults (201)CB.SaveResults Example (201)CB.SaveResults Related Calls (201)CB.SaveResultsND (202)CB.SaveResultsND Example (202)CB.SaveResultsND Related Calls (202)CB.ScatterPrefs (202)CB.ScatterPrefs Example (203)CB.ScatterPrefs Related Call (203)CB.ScatterPrefsND (203)CB.ScatterPrefsND Example (206)CB.ScatterPrefsND Related Call (207)CB.SelectAssum (207)CB.SelectAssum Example (207)CB.SelectAssum Related Calls (208)CB.SelectChart (208)CB.SelectChart Example (208)CB.SelectChart Related Calls (208)CB.SelectDecVar (209)CB.SelectDecVar Example (209)CB.SelectDecVar Related Calls (209)CB.SelectFore (209)CB.SelectFore Example (209)CB.SelectFore Related Calls (210)CB.SensPrefs (210)CB.SensPrefs Example (210)CB.SensPrefs Related Call (210)CB.SensPrefsND (210)CB.SensPrefsND Example (212)CB.SensPrefsND Related Call (213)CB.SetAssum (213)CB.SetAssum Example (214)CB.SetAssum Related Calls (214)CB.SetCBAutoLoad (214)xii ContentsCB.SetCBAutoLoad Example (215)CB.SetCBAutoLoad Related Calls (215)CB.SetCBWorkbookPriority (215)CB.SetCBWorkbookPriority Example (215)CB.SetDecVar (216)CB.SetDecVar Example 1 (217)CB.SetDecVar Example 2 (217)CB.SetDecVar Related Calls (218)CB.SetExcel2007ForegroundMode (218)CB.SetExcel2007ForegroundMode Example (218)CB.SetExcel2007ForegroundMode Related Call (219)CB.SetFitRange (219)CB.SetFitRange Examples (219)CB.SetFitRange Related Call (219)CB.SetFore (219)CB.SetFore Example 1 (223)CB.SetFore Example 2 (223)CB.SetFore Related Calls (223)CB.SetRange (223)CB.SetRange Example 1 (225)CB.SetRange Example 2 (225)CB.SetRange Related Call (225)CB.Shutdown (225)CB.Shutdown Example (225)CB.Shutdown Related Calls (225)CB.SimResult (226)CB.SimResult Example (226)CB.SimResult Related Calls (226)CB.Simulation (226)CB.Simulation Example 1 (228)CB.Simulation Example 2 (228)CB.Simulation Related Calls (228)CB.SingleStep (229)CB.SingleStep Example (229)CB.SingleStep Related Call (229)CB.StartMultiSimul (229)CB.StartMultiSimul Example (230)CB.StartMultiSimul Related Calls (230)CB.Startup (230)Contents xiiiCB.Startup Example (231)CB.Startup Related Calls (231)CB.StopMultiSimul (231)CB.StopMultiSimul Related Calls (231)CB.TrendPrefs (231)CB.TrendPrefs Example (232)CB.TrendPrefs Related Calls (232)CB.TrendPrefsND (232)CB.TrendPrefsND Example (235)CB.TrendPrefsND Related Call (235)CB.TwoDSimulation (236)CB.TwoDSimulation Example (236)CB.TwoDSimulation Related Calls (236)CB.TwoDSimulationND (236)CB.TwoDSimulationND Example 1 (239)CB.TwoDSimulationND Example 2 (240)CB.TwoDSimulationND Related Calls (240)CB.WorksheetProtection (241)CB.WorksheetProtection Example 1 (242)CB.WorksheetProtection Example 2 (242)CB.WorksheetProtection Example 3 (242)Chapter 4. Changes from Previous Versions (245)Introduction (245)Added in Crystal Ball 11.1.1.0.00 (245)Added in Crystal Ball 7.1 - 7.3.x (246)Not Included in This Version (247)Changes to Existing Calls (249)CB.ND (249)CB.AutoDownshift (249)CB.CellPrefsND (249)CB.ChartPrefsND (250)CB.CheckData (250)CB.ClearData (250)CB.ClearDataND (250)CB.CloseFore (250)CB.CloseSensitiv (250)CB.CloseTrend (250)CB.CopyData and CB.CopyDataND (251)xiv ContentsCB.CorrelateND (251)CB.CreateRpt (251)CB.CreateRptND (251)CB.DefineAltParms (252)CB.DefineAssum (253)CB.DefineAssumND (253)CB.DefineDecVar (253)CB.DefineDecVarND (254)CB.DefineForeND (254)CB.EnumAssum (254)CB.EnumDecVar (254)CB.EnumFore (254)CB.ExtractDataND (254)CB.Fit (255)CB.Freeze and CB.FreezeND (256)CB.GetAssum (256)CB.GetAssumPercent (256)CB.GetCertainty (256)CB.GetCorrelation (256)CB.GetDecVar (256)CB.GetFitParm (257)CB.GetFore (257)CB.GetForeStat (257)CB.GetRunPrefs (257)CB.GetVersion, CB.GetWorksheetVersion (258)CB.IsCBObject (258)CB.OpenSensitiv (258)CB.OpenTrend (258)CB.PasteData (258)CB.RunPrefsND (258)CB.SensPrefsND (259)CB.SetAssum (259)CB.SetDecVar (259)CB.SetFore (260)CB.SimResult (260)CB.Simulation (260)CB.StartMultiSimul (260)CB.TrendPrefsND (261)Other Changes (261)Contents xvCharts Module (261)Chapter 5. Crystal Ball Runtime (263)Introduction (263)About Crystal Ball Runtime (263)Runtime Example Workbook (263)Delivering Crystal Ball Runtime Applications (264)Installation Script (264)System Requirements and .NET (265)Licensing Script (265)Startup Scripts (266)Installing Crystal Ball Runtime (266)Crystal Ball Runtime Licensing Requirements (267)Appendix A. Using the OptQuest Developer Kit (269)About the OptQuest Developer Kit (269)Who Should Use This Kit (269)What This Kit Includes (270)What You Will Need (270)OptQuest Developer Kit Use and Structure (270)Specific Requirements for Use (270)OptQuest Developer Kit Namespace (271)Important OptQuest Classes (271)Developing Optimization Code (274)Development Environment (274)Development Resources (274)Coding an Optimization (277)User-defined Event Macros for Optimizations (279)User-defined Event Macro Names (279)Using Events in VBA (280)Event Signatures (281)Constraints and Macros (283)Global Macros (283)Appendix B. Using the Predictor Developer Kit (285)About the Predictor Developer Kit (285)Who Should Use This Kit (286)What This Kit Includes (286)Developer Kit Use and Structure (286)Specific Requirements for Use (286)xvi ContentsPredictor Developer Kit Namespace (287)Important Predictor Classes (287)Developing Time-Series Forecasting Code (290)Index (293)Contents xviixviii ContentsIn This ChapterAbout the Oracle Crystal Ball Developer Kit (19)Who Should Use the Crystal Ball Developer Kit (20)What You Will Need (20)How This Manual is Organized (20)Documentation Changes (21)Technical Support and More (21)About the Oracle Crystal Ball Developer KitWelcome to the Developer Kit for Oracle Crystal Ball, Fusion Edition.Using the Crystal Ball Developer Kit, you can automate and control Crystal Ball simulationsfrom within a Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) program. This opens up a whole range ofpossibilities:l Running multiple simulations to test different sets of assumptions automaticallyl Integrating Crystal Ball with other software toolsl Creating turnkey applications that shield users from program intricaciesl Building custom reports or automate post-simulation analysisl Setting up specialized simulation environmentsThe Developer Kit provides a link between Crystal Ball and your application. It consists of alibrary of macro calls (subroutines and functions) that control many aspects of Crystal Ball. Eachcopy of Crystal Ball comes enabled to use the Developer Kit, so that programs you develop todaycan be run by other users as well.This kit is the key that unlocks the programmability of Crystal Ball and guides you through themany calls available. In addition to the descriptions of the calls, or subroutines and functions,this manual contains examples that illustrate usage of the Developer Kit in several practicalapplications. You are encouraged to study these examples before starting out on your ownapplications. Should you need additional help, technical support is available with appropriatelicenses.If you have Oracle Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer, Fusion Edition, Appendix A, “Using theOptQuest Developer Kit,” describes how to automate OptQuest optimizations.About the Oracle Crystal Ball Developer Kit19See Appendix B, “Using the Predictor Developer Kit,” for information about automating andcontrolling Predictor forecasting.Note:The Predictor Developer Kit described in this Developer's Guide is completely rewritten.Code written for CB Predictor in Crystal Ball versions earlier than 11.1.1.3.00 is notcompatible with the current version of Predictor or this Predictor Developer Kit.Who Should Use the Crystal Ball Developer KitThe Crystal Ball Developer Kit is appropriate for advanced users who want to automate repetitivespreadsheet analysis. This manual assumes that readers are familiar with Visual Basic forApplications and Crystal Ball.What You Will NeedCrystal Ball runs on several versions of Microsoft Windows and Microsoft Excel. For a completelist of required hardware and software, see the Oracle Crystal Ball Installation and LicensingGuide.How This Manual is OrganizedThis manual contains descriptions of the Crystal Ball Developer Kit macro calls. It also discussesthe COM Developer Kit for OptQuest, Predictor, and Oracle Hyperion Smart View for Office,Fusion Edition integration.Each macro description includes a list of parameters and an example of the use of the relevantcalls.The manual includes the following additional chapters:l Chapter 2, “Crystal Ball Developer Kit Overview”Describes how to use the Crystal Ball Developer Kit and contains an alphabetical list of allCrystal Ball Developer Kit calls with summaries, plus tables of related calls.l Chapter 3, “Crystal Ball Macro Calls”Includes descriptions of all Crystal Ball Developer Kit calls in alphabetical order, withexamples.l Chapter 4, “Changes from Previous Versions”Information about changes since previous releases of Crystal Ball.l Chapter 5, “Crystal Ball Runtime”Information about creating applications for people who are not users of Crystal Ball.l Appendix A, “Using the OptQuest Developer Kit”20WelcomeDescribes how to use the Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer OptQuest Developer Kit toautomate OptQuest optimizations.l Appendix B, “Using the Predictor Developer Kit”Describes how to use the Predictor Developer Kit, included with all versions of Crystal Ball,to automate Predictor time-series forecasts.Documentation ChangesFor greater consistency in terminology between the Crystal Ball Developer Kit and VBA:l The term "macro" describes a sequence of VBA code created using the Crystal Ball Developer Kit.l The term "function" describes a Developer Kit element that returns a value. For example, the CB.GetCertainty function returns the probability of reaching the specified certaintyvalue.l The term "subroutine" describes a Developer Kit element that does not return a value — for example, CB.AboutBox.l The term "call" or "macro call" is used generically to describe any Developer Kit function or subroutine — for example, "The next section describes new Crystal Ball Developer Kit calls."In this version of the Crystal Ball Developer Kit, all macro calls are listed together in alphabeticalorder in Chapter 3. For lists of macro calls grouped by functionality, see Chapter 2.For information on how the Developer Kit calls have changed since the 2000.5 (5.5) version, seeChapter 4, “Changes from Previous Versions”.Technical Support and MoreOracle offers a variety of resources to help you use Crystal Ball, such as technical support,training, and other services. For information, see:/crystalballDocumentation Changes2122WelcomeIn This ChapterIntroduction (23)How to Use the Crystal Ball Developer Kit (24)Alphabetic List of Crystal Ball Macro Calls (27)Functions For Use in Excel Models (32)Opening and Closing Crystal Ball (32)Setting Up and Running Simulations (33)Controlling Crystal Ball Chart Windows (34)Managing Charts (35)Handling Crystal Ball Results (35)Setting and Getting Preferences (36)Crystal Ball Tools (37)Special Calls (37)IntroductionThis chapter tells how to use the Crystal Ball Developer Kit and provides lists of macro calls(subroutines and functions) from different categories with references to Chapter 3 for detaileddefinitions and examples.The chapter begins with instructions for using the Crystal Ball Developer Kit, followed by analphabetical list of the Crystal Ball calls, including a brief summary of the actions they perform.This section serves as an index to the Crystal Ball calls in Chapter 3.The following sections list groups of macro calls used for various purposes:l“Functions For Use in Excel Models” on page 32l“Opening and Closing Crystal Ball” on page 32l“Setting Up and Running Simulations” on page 33l“Controlling Crystal Ball Chart Windows” on page 34l“Handling Crystal Ball Results” on page 35l“Setting and Getting Preferences” on page 36l“Special Calls” on page 37Introduction23。
Monte-Carlo Simulation with Crystal Ball®用水晶球软件进行蒙特卡洛模拟To run a simulation using Crystal Ball®:1.Setup Spreadsheet1．设定数据表Build a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure (e.g., profit) in terms of the inputs (random or not). For random inputs, just enter any number.通过建立数据表可以对输入数据（随机的，非随机）进行评估。
随机数据的输入，输入任意数即可。
2. Define Assumptions—i.e., random variablesDefine which cells are random, and what distribution they should follow.2．定义假设的前提—例如，随机变量确定那些单元格的数据时随机的，这些数据应该服从什么样的分布3. Define Forecast—i.e., output or performance measureDefine which cell(s) you are interested in forecasting (typically the performance measure, e.g., profit). 3．预测结果的确定—例如，数据输出或者性能的测定确定哪些单元格的数据是你想预测的（典型的性能指标，例如，利润）4. Choose Number of TrialsSelect the number of trials. If you would later like to generate the Sensitivity Analysis chart, choose “Sensitivity Analysis” under Options in Run Preferences.4. 选择试验的次数选择试验的次数。
氯化铯晶胞指数氯化铯晶胞指数是指氯化铯晶体中每个元素原子周围最近邻居的个数，也称为氯化铯的配位数。
它是描述晶体结构的重要指标之一，常用于探讨晶体性质和材料应用。
氯化铯晶体的晶胞指数为八，这意味着每个铯离子周围有八个氯离子，每个氯离子周围也有八个铯离子。
这种晶体结构称为立方晶系。
立方晶系的晶胞指数通常为6、8或12。
八面体状的氯离子离子和圆球状的铯离子互相排列，形成一个紧密的晶体结构。
氯化铯晶体具有高对称性和较高的硬度，可以在高温下稳定存在。
氯化铯在化学上属于盐类，具有很好的化学稳定性。
它可以作为热释电材料和激光晶体材料等应用。
氯化铯还可以用于计算机显示器等电子产品中的光阻材料和薄膜涂层。
由于氯化铯的优良性能和广泛应用，对于氯化铯晶胞指数的研究变得尤其重要。
氯化铯晶体的晶胞指数还可以通过实验方法进行测定。
最常用的实验测定晶胞指数的方法是X射线单晶衍射技术。
通过射线探测精确测定晶体结构的晶胞参数和晶胞指数，从而获得更准确的氯化铯晶胞指数。
其次还可以通过热重分析、差热分析等热学方法和电子显微镜等物理方法来获得晶胞指数。
随着科学技术的发展，氯化铯晶胞指数的应用也在不断拓展和创新。
例如，在材料学中，晶胞指数可以较好的描述材料性质和反应机理。
同时晶胞指数还是材料维度与热平衡和热传导之间联系的主要参数，在高温热传导等领域较为实用。
因此，晶胞指数的研究和应用对于材料科学和热力学等领域都有较为重要的意义。
总之，氯化铯晶胞指数的研究是材料科学和化学领域中的重要内容，具有广泛的实用价值。
进一步深入研究氯化铯晶胞指数以及其在材料科学和其他领域的应用，将有助于开发更高性能、更高质量的材料，并推动科技创新与发展。
