？2005年投资分析报告自从2001年对股票指数进行重大调整以来，2004年的波动趋势一直未能摆脱冲击，但市场的重心仍在继续下降。
由于导致股价结构调整的许多原因尚未得到根本消除，因此，预计2005年的股票指数将继续保持类似盒式的操作模式，但市场的重心可能会继续被降低。
1.宏观分析。
首先，解决股权分置问题，即解决非流通股发行问题，是2001年以后调整股指的主要原因。
中国证监会主席同志最近公开表示：有必要在维持市场融资和投资需求总体规模的基础上，积极支持业绩良好，投资价值好的蓝筹公司的发行和上市，逐步优化我国上市公司的规模结构。
积极推进股权分置解决方案，完善上市公司股权结构，有利于改善公司治理。
为解决股权分置问题，国务院《若干意见》提出了明确的原则，即“尊重市场法，有利于市场的稳定与发展，有效保护投资者的合法权益，特别是公共投资者。
”在这一原则的指导下，必须积极稳定地解决股权分割问题。
应该说，到目前为止没有找到合适的解决方案。
随着时间的流逝，股权分割问题将变得越来越严重。
有许多不确定因素会导致股价继续进行结构调整。
近年来，由股价结构调整引起的市场运作也受到冲击。
其次，尽管到目前为止，QDII尚未正式实施，但总有消息称，社会保障基金是第一个获准投资香港市场的基金。
看来QDII的正式实施不会太遥远。
如果实施QDII，由于H股与A.B股之间的巨大价差，对A.B股市场的影响将是巨大的。
QDII正式启动后，将给本来就脆弱的A股和B股市场带来新的压力，这是不可避免的。
目前，大陆市场谈论QDII“变色”，一个非常重要的因素是人们有两个主要的疑问。
首先，引入QDII后，整体估值较高的A股是否会暴跌？第二，基金，证券公司，保险公司等国内机构投资者是否有能力应对国际市场的激烈竞争。
QDII可能确实会在一段时间内对国内股票市场产生影响，但这并不是阻碍国际市场最终投资的充分理由。
Once again, since the implementation of the tight economic policy in April 2004, it is estimated that there will not be much relaxation in 2005. From December 3 to 5, the Central Economic Work Conference held by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council in Beijing put forward the main tasks for next year's economic work. Among them, the first is "continue to strengthen and improve macro-control to ensure stable and rapid economic development... We must implement prudent fiscal and monetary policies, and continue to control the excessive growth of fixed asset investment." This indicates that the Chinese government has been implementing the proactive fiscal policy for nearly seven years and is about to adjust its orientation. In addition, the 2004 fourth quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held in Beijing believed that since this year, mycountry's national economy has continued to maintain steady and rapid growth. In accordance with the unified deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the People's Bank of China continues to implement a prudent monetary policy, strengthen and improve financial regulation, rationally control the total amount of money and credit, and strive to optimize the credit structure. Generally speaking, the monetary and credit policy measures adopted have achieved initial results, the growth of money and credit is generally reasonable, and financial operations are stable. The meeting analyzed the current international and domestic economic and financial situations in depth, and believed that it is necessary to fully implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, use the scientific development concept as the guiding ideology, continue to strengthen and improve financial macro-control, and promote stable and rapid economic development and basic price stability. The meeting studied the monetary policy orientation and measures for the next stage, and believed that prudent monetary policy should continue to be implemented to further improve the forward-looking, scientific and effective financial regulation. Comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools to properly regulate the liquidity of the financial system in a timely manner. Steadily promote the reform of interest rate marketization, furtherimprove the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and promote the balance of international payments. Actively promote the reform of financial enterprises, encourage financial innovation, improve financial services, vigorously develop the financial market, promote the coordinated development of direct financing and indirect financing, and improve the efficiency of monetary policy transmission. Therefore, as macroeconomic policies continue to be tight, it is difficult for listed companies to obtain a loose development environment, and the increase in profitability is also restricted to a certain extent. Also, expectations for continued interest rate hikes in 2005 are high. The Federal Reserve Board of the United States decided on December 14 to increase the federal funds rate from 2% to 2.25%. This is the fifth consecutive rate hike by the Fed since June this year. The Federal Reserve stated in the interest rate hike statement that monetary policy remains accommodative. Although energy prices have risen this year, output still has moderate growth, and inflation and long-term inflation expectations have also remained unchanged. The Fed said it will continue to raise interest rates "at a pace that may be prudent." "For a period of time in the future, the level of interest rates will continue to rise." In response, Yi Xianrong, director of the FinancialDevelopment Office of the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that using interest rates as a market-based measure to regulate economic overheating is more effective than administrative measures. , The impact on the market is also smaller. In view of the fact that the current macro-control has only achieved initial results, and some prominent contradictions in economic operations have yet to be resolved, interest rate tools may be used as economic trends change. Therefore, the expectation of continuing to raise interest rates is not a good thing for the market. On the contrary, it has a certain effect of pulling away market funds. Finally, after experiencing a substantial increase in the profitability of listed companies from 2003 to 2004, the possibility of continuing to fluctuate sharply in 2005 has been greatly reduced, and many cyclical economic industries will usher in an adjustment after experiencing a peak. The changes will also cause market volatility. Moreover, the continued improvement of the macro economy does not mean that the stock market can reverse. Since its founding at the end of 1990, the Chinese stock market has experienced thirteen cold and hot springs and autumns. The phenomenon of "economic divergence" is not an overnight phenomenon. The divergence of the market since June 2001 is particularly obvious. It should be said that the proactive fiscal policy has led to the rapid economic growth ofgovernment investment, but many listed companies may not be able to directly benefit from it. It is estimated that the current gross national product created by non-state holding enterprises has exceeded 50%, and this proportion is still rising. However, their share in the stock market is still less than 10% of the total stock market value, which means that my country's economic growth is more dependent on government spending and non-state-owned enterprises that have not yet been listed, rather than derived from listed companies. Therefore, the listed companies and the stock market lack sufficient coverage and representativeness relative to the national economy, and it is naturally difficult for the stock market to fully and accurately reflect economic operations. Although the overall stock market has maintained a long-term upward trend. However, the long-term rise does not mean the rise all the time, and it is impossible to complete the bull-bear conversion without adequate adjustment. Of course, investors should also see that the "National Nine Articles" are gradually being implemented, and there are positive aspects of macroeconomic policies. This also destined that the stock index cannot undergo a collapse-like adjustment. On the whole, the macroeconomic outlook next year will not be enough to change the current structural adjustment and operation of the market. Under the influence of many uncertain factors, it will bedifficult for stock indexes to get out of the bear market and embark on a bull road. 2. Technical analysis: First, take the theoretical analysis of the form: the above stock index as an example, the stock index has clearly broken through the large consolidation pattern that began in June 2001, and the stock index has broken through after a continuous shock rebound at the beginning of the year. The connection between the high point of 2245.13 in June 2001 and the high point of 1649.60 on April 16, 2003 has been established. Therefore, the current pattern has got rid of the original pattern. Therefore, the pattern of operation thereafter is no longer possible. If it overlaps with the previous pattern, it can avoid the possibility of a thousand points in the market next year. Of course, from the perspective of recent trends, the stock index has gradually declined since the market reached 1783.00 points on April 7, 2004, and the process of rebounding at the bottom of 1259 points has clearly established a typical convergence. In the triangle pattern, the lower support line position when it is broken downward is approximately 1316 points. According to the triangle theory, the adjustment amount after the downward breakthrough should be the height of the triangle pattern, which is 1496-1259=237 points, then the target of the market adjustment The position should be at 1316-237=1079 points. If the rebound pattern after September looks like a descendingtriangle, then the position of the lower edge of the triangle table is about 1290 points, then the depth of adjustment should be 1496-1290=206 points, and the target position for stock index adjustment is 1290-206= 1084 points. The target for stock index adjustment will be around 1100 points. Secondly, analyze with wave theory: At present, the market is in the process of adjusting the second cyclic wave (the reason why the stock index is in the second cyclic wave adjustment has been analyzed in detail in the previous two years, so I will not repeat it here), and the wave theory points out "The second wave of adjustment often goes out of a zigzag adjustment wave, and the fourth wave is rarely the case." The adjustment from the highest point of 2245.43 on June 14, 2001 is the second cyclic wave (III) II adjustment, and the adjustment process from the highest point of 2245.43 on June 14, 2001 to 1339.20 on January 29, 2002 has The obvious three-wave structure characteristics can be clearly identified from the monthly K line. However, due to the adjustment from the highest point of 2245.43 on June 14, 2001 to 1339.20 on January 29, 2002, neither the time span (only half a year) nor the magnitude of the adjustment are far from the second cycle wave (III) II adjustment requirements, so the adjustment during this period is only a sub-wave of the second cyclic wave adjustment. (III) II W (if it is a 5-wave pattern, it should be abig A wave, but this is a 3-wave pattern and can only constitute a big wave. W wave). It is precisely because the wave theory also tells us: "Sometimes the zigzag will happen twice, or even three times in a row, especially when the first zigzag does not reach the normal goal. In these cases, each The zigzag adjustment wave will be separated by the inserted "three waves", resulting in the so-called double zigzag adjustment wave or triple zigzag adjustment wave. These structures are similar to the prolonged wave of the impulse wave." It can be marked as WXY (-XZ), so The adjustment from the highest point of 2245.43 on June 14, 2001 to 1339.20 on January 29, 2002 is the W wave of the second cyclic wave marked as (III) IIW adjustment. The ABC three-wave rebound from 1339.20 on January 29, 2002 to 1748.89 on June 25, 2002 is the X-wave (III) IIX adjustment inserted after the zigzag adjustment is completed. It has an obvious three-wave structure and a big B Characteristics of waves. According to the trend analysis of the market, after the 6.24 market, the market has completed the W and X big waves, and the next step is the adjustment of the Y big wave, and it will be the new ABC three-wave structure, Y(A) mid-wave will reach January 2003 June 6 is over. From the trend analysis, it has a three-wave structure (also can be seen very clearly from the monthly K-line chart). According to wave theory, “the A of the five-wave structure means that thewave B is a zigzag adjustment wave, and the wave A of the three-wave structure means a platform or a triangle adjustment wave.” Therefore, the big Y wave as a whole is a platform or a triangle adjustment wave. Big Y wave Y(B) Zhonglang is destined to be unable to make a new high. The stock index began to adjust after it hit a new high of 1496 points in the year on April 16, 2003. As a rebound of the nature of the B wave, it is destined to be completely covered by the big Y(C) middle wave, and the stock index also hit 1307 points before ending this round of adjustment. The rebound from the end of last year to April of this year should be said to be another X-wave rebound. This rebound is always considered by many investors to be a bullish marching wave. It will not change their views until the stock index hits a new low. From the perspective of the rebound schedule, it is obvious that there is a combination of 3 to 3, that is, the rebound of oversold stocks, especially technology stocks + the rebound of large-cap blue chip stocks, constituted the first wave of upswing. Of course, it can be divided into 5 waves by force and regarded as a rising wave. The result proves that only the division of 3 to 3 is correct, and the rise of 1 wave is also unreal. And the market is destined to go out of another Z wave adjustment after the rebound of the X wave. And it is a 3-3-3 structure. Corresponding to the current stock index should be in theprocess of Z(A) mid-wave adjustment. From a morphological point of view, there are two ways to understand the adjustment of the Z(A) wave: one is to adjust the small a wave of the Z(A) from 1783 to 1508 points, then the adjustment after the rebound of 1580 points can be done It is adjusted for the small c wave of Z(A) wave. Another way of understanding is to adjust the small a wave belonging to the Z(A) wave from 1783 to 1259. Then the rebound after the 9.14 market can be understood as the small b wave of the Z(A) wave. , The subsequent adjustment is the adjustment of the small c wave. No matter how the wave theory is understood, the current stock index should be in the process of adjustment of the small c wave. From the perspective of the monthly line, the latter way of understanding is more appropriate. After the adjustment of the Z(A) wave, there will be a rebound of the Z(B) wave. This may be the best investment opportunity next year. The adjusted target position can be analyzed with the golden section theory. If the current adjustment of wave Z(A)a ends at 1259, the target position of wave c adjustment in the market outlook should have three results, one is the adjustment range of 0.618 times, and the other The two are equal length and 1.618 times the adjustment range. According to the current operation of the stock index, the possibility of a huge adjustment is not very large. If its adjustment range is 0.618 times ofZ(A)A, that is, (1783-1259)*0.618=324 poi nts, then the market’s The adjustment target should be 1496-324=1172 points. If the market completes the adjustment of wave Z(A)a at 1508, then there is no doubt that the adjustment of wave Z(A)c is a prolonged wave adjustment, and its adjustment range is (1783-1508)*1.618=445 points , The market adjustment target is 1580-445=1135 points. Therefore, the market adjustment target should be around 1150 points. 3. Investment strategy Based on the above analysis, the stock index will continue to show a fluctuating operation trend in 2005, but the market's volatility center will decline. It is expected that valuation will develop in three dimensions: some stocks that perform well and continue to grow but are undervalued by the market return to a reasonable price; some stocks that continue to grow and are currently considered to be reasonably valued are held by institutions for a long time because of the natural growth of performance. Valuations go up again; other stocks that have neither improved nor grown are discarded by the market. The overall valuation level of the market will show the characteristics of volatile operation, and the equilibrium valuation level is determined by the implicit cost of capital in the market. The growth of institutional investors accelerates market differentiation and moves closer to mature markets. The market liquidity structure has undergone significantchanges: the momentum and dynamic development of the market will be more dominated by the stocks of institutional investors; the stocks that are not traded by institutions lose their liquidity, and the phenomenon of "bad money driving out good money" in stock trading Fading out gradually. It is important to note that before the bull market has begun, a bear market investment strategy is still needed. In terms of investment opportunities in the stock market, investors should focus on the following aspects: First, make corresponding speculation and investment hype in the process of the Z(B) wave rebound of the stock index. After the stock index dropped at the beginning of the year, the bottom of the first half of the year will be found, especially when the stock index reaches below the set 1150 point, investors should pay attention to the market rebound opportunity. Among them, a batch of oversold Under the requirements of a technical rebound, the low-priced stocks of China will produce an incredible increase of 30-50%. Investors should not give up such speculative opportunities. Of course, in the course of the stock index Z(B) rebound, some products with investment value will also see a larger rise. In addition, after the Z(B) wave rebounds, it is expected that the stock index will rise from 1550 points to 1650 points and there will still be a Z(C) wave drop. At this time, investors should pay attention to rallies to reduce their pounds andwait for Z(C) Completion of wave adjustment. Second, after more than two years of value investment philosophy cultivation, the structural adjustment of the market continues. It is not ruled out that some individual stocks will move out of the trend completely independent of the market. This requires investors to have strong fundamental analysis capabilities and predictive capabilities. Forward-looking. Investors should pay close attention to the following types of companies: 1. Stocks that continued to grow in 2005. Steady growth of consumer products company. In the environment of declining profitability of investment products and steady growth of social consumption, such companies should have higher investment value. In terms of the structure of consumer goods, pay attention to the investment opportunities of rising demand for mass consumer goods in rural consumption; agriculture-related industries, such as urea, potash, agricultural production materials, agricultural enterprises, etc.; can also focus on traditional Chinese medicine, retail, food, wine, tourism, etc. Leading company in the industry. The upstream cost stabilizes or declines, and the downstream demand can maintain stable growth in the manufacturing industry should have better investment value. Among them, the focus is on leading enterprises in the chemical and machinery manufacturing industries. 2. It is a stock whose industryfundamentals and stock prices have suffered a short-term impact, and the long-term contradiction between supply and demand has not improved. Such companies are affected by macro-control or industry cycles in the short-term, and their stock prices are temporarily impacted, but their fundamentals are still in good condition, but the growth of production capacity and profit has not been released for the time being. Once the industry warms up, their advantages will be reflected. . 3. It is a monopoly industry. Since the purpose of macro-control is more to restore the "endogenity" of economic growth, with the marketization tendency of regulation, there is still room for the price of products in some monopolistic industries, especially regulated sectors, to rise, and relevant monopolistic industries are listed. The company's performance will also be further improved. 4. It is the industry leader. These companies usually have sustained and good capacity growth capabilities, competitive products and market positions, and have strong investment value. 5. It is a stock that is at the bottleneck of the industrial chain. This round of macro-control has had a greater impact on most cyclical industries, and those companies that are at the bottleneck of the industry chain are relatively less affected, and they are good varieties that are resistant to falling. 6. It is a bank stock. The main content of bank reform is to reduce non-performing loan ratio, increase capitaladequacy ratio, introduce overseas strategic investors, and expand capital through listing. Encourage the expansion of capital quotas through listing. According to Su Shumin's prediction, there are also many investment opportunities in these reorganizations involving private enterprises and other social capitals. In particular, these enterprises will be listed in the domestic market after the reorganization, which will greatly improve the structure of the domestic stock market. 7. Actively pay attention to industries that may benefit if the renminbi appreciates, such as aviation, papermaking, non-tradable industries that may increase in asset value and profitability. The third is the upcoming large-cap stocks. Due to the inquiry system adopted for the issuance of new shares, the issue price of the newly issued large-cap blue chip stocks will naturally become more reasonable, and their pricing will definitely be lower than the existing large-cap blue chip varieties in the market. In addition, this batch of newly listed Large-cap blue chip stocks have good qualifications and should be favored by institutional investors. In the medium and long term, they will have the ability to oscillate upward. Therefore, investors will pay close attention to the "aircraft carrier" stocks to be issued in the first half of next year, such as PetroChina, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank. Especially if they release and open the primary market forsubscription, it will be an excellent opportunity for intervention. . On the whole, the stock market will still be in the process of structural adjustment. Poor-performing stocks can only participate in speculative short-term, while large capital and medium- and long-term perspectives should still emphasize value investment.【翻译失败,可能限速延时太小！】。
