30 3 2015 6
JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS ENGINEERING
V ol.30No.3
Jun.2015
1, 1, 2, 1
(1. , 300071;2. , 300072)
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:C931;X913.4 :A :1000−5781(2015)03−0306−13
doi:10.13383/ki.jse.2015.03.003
Modeling the evolution of emergency based on system dynamics
Li Yongjian1,Qiao Xiaojiao1,Sun Xiaochen2,Li Chunyan1
(1.Business School,Nankai University,Tianjin300071,China;
2.School of Science,Tianjin University,Tianjin300072,China)
Abstract:Due to the special characteristics like explosive,uncertainty of evolution and environmental com-plexity,this paper defines the evolution model of emergency chain and describes four basic evolution modes.
Based on the emergency structural description framework,it investigates the evolution of unconventional earth-quake under the collected earthquake cases.Then with the data of Tangjiashan dammed-lake derived from the Wenchuan Earthquake,this paper performs a numerical simulation by using system dynamics.The research results verify the feasibility and validity of this study.Finally,some suggestions are proposed to deal with dammed-lake.
Key words:emergency;emergency evolution;system dynamics;unconventional earthquake;dammed-lake
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