基于系统动力学的突发事件演化模型
- 格式：pdf
- 大小：968.32 KB
- 文档页数：13
当前位置：文档之家 › 基于系统动力学的突发事件演化模型
合集下载
- 1、下载文档前请自行甄别文档内容的完整性，平台不提供额外的编辑、内容补充、找答案等附加服务。
- 2、"仅部分预览"的文档,不可在线预览部分如存在完整性等问题,可反馈申请退款(可完整预览的文档不适用该条件!)。
- 3、如文档侵犯您的权益，请联系客服反馈,我们会尽快为您处理(人工客服工作时间：9:00-18:30)。
30 3 2015 6
JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS ENGINEERING
V ol.30No.3
Jun.2015
1, 1, 2, 1
(1. , 300071;2. , 300072)
: , , ; . , , , . , .
: ; ; ; ;
:C931;X913.4 :A :1000−5781(2015)03−0306−13
doi:10.13383/ki.jse.2015.03.003
Modeling the evolution of emergency based on system dynamics
Li Yongjian1,Qiao Xiaojiao1,Sun Xiaochen2,Li Chunyan1
(1.Business School,Nankai University,Tianjin300071,China;
2.School of Science,Tianjin University,Tianjin300072,China)
Abstract:Due to the special characteristics like explosive,uncertainty of evolution and environmental com-plexity,this paper defines the evolution model of emergency chain and describes four basic evolution modes.
Based on the emergency structural description framework,it investigates the evolution of unconventional earth-quake under the collected earthquake cases.Then with the data of Tangjiashan dammed-lake derived from the Wenchuan Earthquake,this paper performs a numerical simulation by using system dynamics.The research results verify the feasibility and validity of this study.Finally,some suggestions are proposed to deal with dammed-lake.
Key words:emergency;emergency evolution;system dynamics;unconventional earthquake;dammed-lake
1
, , , . . , , .
, , , , : [1]; [2−4]; , [5,6]; , [7−11]; ,
3 : 307
[12−18]; , , [19−21] .
, , , . , , , , . , , .
, , , , , . , , , . , , , .
2
, 2001 “9·11” ,2003 SARS ,2004 ,2008 ,2011 12 ( , ) . , , . , : , , , . [22]:
={{ },{ },{ },{ },{ }}.
:
1)
. , ; . , .
2)
, . ; , .
3)
. , ; , .
4)
, .
5)
. , , . , .
308 30 , , :
={{ },{ , , },{ , , },{ , },{ , , , }};
={{ ( )},{ , , },{ , },{ , , , },{ , , }}.
: , , , ; , , , ; , ( , , ) . , .
3
. , , , . , , , , . [23−25]. , , :
1)
1 , . A , 1 , B. . , , .
1
Fig.1Mode of straight evolution
. , , , , , . { , , } .
2)
2 , . A , 1 , B,C. , . , , .
2011 “3 11” . , , 10km, ; , , , 7 . { , ,
3 : 309 } . , , , , .
3)
3 , A B, 1 2 C . , , , , , , .
2 Fig.2Mode of emanating evolution
3
Fig.3Mode of centralizing evolution
2011 . , , , ( ) , . : , , , , , . { , } { } . , , , ; , , , . , , . , . .
4)
4 , A , 1 B, B 2 C , C 3 A, , . , , , 1 .
4
Fig.4Mode of circulating evolution
310 30 , . { } ( ) , { } , , { , } . , , , .
, , . , ; . , .
4
, ={{ },{ , , },{ , , },{ , },{ , , , }}. ,1970 ( 2012−12−31) 109513 , , . 647 , , , , , , , , , , , , . , 5 .
5
Fig.5Evolution diagram of events derivated from unconventional earthquake