08金融危机爆发原因和过程 (中英版)

历史背景
Historical background
最初的流动性危机可以在事后被看作是由于早期次级房屋信贷危机所引发的。

Initially a liquidity crisis can in hindsight be seen as is secondary due to early housing caused by the credit crisis.
北岩银行是首批遭遇冲击的对象之一，它是英国主流银行。

Northern Rock is one of the first encounter objects of impact, it is the United Kingdom the mainstream banks.
该行已借不到额外资金来偿还2007年9月中旬产生的到期债务。

It has failed to borrow additional funds to repay maturing debt by mid-September 2007.
由于没有持续现金注入，其所经营的高杠杆性质的业务无法支撑，最终导致其被接管，并形成了很快降临到其他银行和金融机构的灾难的早期迹象。

Because there is no continuing cash injection, highly leveraged nature of its operating business cannot be supported, eventually leading to its being taken over, and formed soon befall other banks and financial institutions of early signs of disaster.
在松弛的签名承受标准下的过度借贷为美国房贷泡沫的特征之一。

Excessive borrowing under the lax underwriting standards for the United States one of the characteristics of the mortgage bubble.
信用泛滥并导致大量的次级按揭（次级贷款），投资者认为这些高风险的贷款会被资产证券化而缓和。

Credit spread and a large number of subprime mortgages (subordinated loan), investors believe these risky loans are asset-backed securitization and relaxation.
从1989年以来，美国发行MBS的主要机构Fannie Mae（房利美）Freddie Mac（房地美）、Ginnie Mae(吉利美)所发行的MBS殖利率平均高于美国十年期公债殖利率137个基本点，吸引许多法人投资。

From 1989, the United States issued major institutions Fannie Mae MBS (Fannie Mae) Freddie Mac (Freddie Mac), Ginnie Mae (lucky us) MBS issued by colonization rates average higher than the United States colonization ten-year government bond rate 137 pips, attract many corporate investment.
雷曼兄弟MBS指数显示无论利率升降，自1996年以来该指数连续十年都是正报酬，最差的1999年也有2.1%的报酬率，同时期MSCI全球债券指数在1999年、2001年、2005年却是负报酬率。

Lehman MBS index regardless of interest rate movements, since 1996 the index are being paid for ten consecutive years, the worst rate of 1999 there were 2.1%, while MSCI global index in 1999, 2001, 2005, it is a negative rate of return.
这个策略似乎以骨牌效应扩展和散布。

This strategy seems to be a domino effect extending and spreading.
由失败的资产证券化计划所导致的损害横扫了房屋市场及其企业，继而引发了次级房屋信贷危机。

By the failed asset backed Securitisation Programme the damage caused by the sweeping of the housing market and enterprise, which led to the subprime housing loan crisis.
这危机令更大量的银主盘被银行在市场上抛售。

This crisis more repossessed by banks in the market to sell.
这些过量的房屋供应使得周边的住屋价格都大为下跌，造成它们容易遭法院收回拍卖或被放弃。

These excess housing supply and housing prices are greatly decreased by around, cause they are vulnerable to court to recover sale or abandonment.
这个结果替往后的金融危机埋下了伏笔。

The result for the subsequent financial crisis has sown the foreshadowing.
最初，受影响的公司只限于那些直接涉足建屋及次级贷款业务的公司如北岩银行及美国国家金融服务公司。

Initially, the affected company is limited to those directly involved in company housing and sub-prime lending such as Northern Rock bank, and United States national financial services company.
一些从事按揭证券化的金融机构，例如贝尔斯登，就成为了牺牲品。

Some financial institutions engaged in mortgage-backed securitisation, for example, Bear Stearns, he becomes a victim.
2008年7月11日，全美最大的受押公司瓦解。

On July 11, 2008, the total charge of America's biggest corporate collapse.
印地麦克银行的资产在他们被紧缩信贷下的压力压垮后被联邦人员查封，由于房屋价格的不断下滑以及房屋回赎权丧失率的上升。

Mike banking assets in China and India after they were overwhelmed by tightening credit under pressure by federal agents seized, due to falling housing prices and lose the right to housing foreclosure rate increases.
当天，金融市场急剧下跌，由于投资者想知道政府是否将试图救助抵押放贷者房利美和房地美。

On that day, the financial markets fell sharply as investors wondered whether the Government will attempt to save mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
2008年9月7日，已是晚夏时节，虽然联邦政府接管了房利美和房地美，但危机仍然继续加剧。

On September 7, 2008, late summer is the season, although the Federal Government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but the crisis still continued to intensify.
然后，危机开始影响到那些与房地产无关的普通信贷，而且进而影响到那些与抵押贷款没有直接关系的大型金融机构。

Then, the beginning of the crisis affecting those ordinary credit has nothing to do with real estate, and by extension to those with mortgages are not directly related to large financial institutions.
在这些机构拥有的资产里，大多都是从那些与房屋按揭关联的收益所取得的。

In the assets of these institutions have, most are from those associated with the mortgage of the gains achieved.
对于这些以信用贷款为主要标的的证券，或称信用衍生性商品，原本是用来确保这些金融机构免于倒闭的风险。

For these credit as the main subject of securities, or credit derivative products, originally was used to ensure that these financial institutions from the risk of failure.
然而由于次级房屋信贷危机的发生，使得受到这些信用衍生性商品冲击的成员增加了，包括雷曼兄弟、美国国际集团、美林证券和HBOS。

However, due to sub-prime housing credit crisis occurred, made by these members of the credit derivative products impact has increased, including Lehman Brothers, United States international group, Merrill Lynch, and HBOS.
主要过程及其原因Main process and the causes
早在2007年4月，新世纪金融公司（美国第二大次级房贷公司）的破产就暴露了次级抵押债券的风险，这是美国金融危机最明显的征兆；As early as in April 2007, new century Financial Corporation (United States second largest subprime mortgage company) bankruptcy exposed the risks of subprime mortgage bonds, this is the United States the obvious signs of the financial crisis;
从2007年8月开始，美联储作出反应，向金融体系注入高流动性货币以增加市场信心，美国股市也得以在高位维持，最初形势看来似乎不是很坏。

Beginning in August 2007, the Fed responded to inject liquid currencies to increase market confidence in the financial system, United States equities were also high maintenance, the initial situation seems not so bad.
然而，2008年8月，美国房贷两大巨头——房利美和房地美股价暴跌，持有“两房”债券的金融机构陷入困境。

However, in August 2008, the United States two big mortgage – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares plunge, "two rooms" bonds of troubled financial institutions.
为表明政府应对危机的决心，美国财政部和美联储被迫接管“两房”To demonstrate Government's determination to deal with the crisis, United States Treasury and the Federal Reserve was forced to take over "two rooms".
但是，一系列突如其来的“变故”使得世界各国都为美国金融危机而震惊，总资产高达 1.5万亿美元的世界两大顶级投行雷曼兄弟和美林相继爆出问题，前者被迫申请破产保护，后者被美国银行收购；However, a series of sudden "change" makes countries all over the world for the United States shocked the financial crisis, with total assets of up to $ 1.5 trillion of two of the world's top investment banks Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch have burst out problem, the former was forced to file for bankruptcy protection, which are United States Bank acquisitions;
总资产高达1万亿美元的全球最大保险商美国国际集团（AIG）也难以为继美国政府在选择接管AIG以稳定市场。

Total assets up to $ 1 trillion of the world's largest insurers, United States International Group (AIG) to sustain United States took over the Government in AIG to stabilize the market.
华尔街对金融衍生产品的“滥用”和对次贷危机的估计不足终酿苦果。

Wall Street financial derivatives of "abuse" and underestimated stuffed bitter fruit on the subprime mortgage crisis.
我们认为有以下几点原因：
We believe that there are several reasons:
1、美国过度消费+亚洲过度储蓄United States excessive consumption + Asian excess savings
美国的过度消费和亚洲新兴市场经济国家的过度储蓄是这次危机爆发的深层原因。

United States of excessive consumption and excess savings in emerging market economies in Asia are the underlying causes of the crisis.
长期以来美国国内储蓄一直处于低位，对外经济表现为长期贸易逆差，平均每年逆差占GDP 总额达到6％的水平，且这些逆差主要靠印刷美元“埋单”。

Long United States
persistently low domestic savings, foreign economic relations and presented as a chronic trade deficit, average annual deficit accounted for total GDP reached 6% levels, mainly by printing dollars and the deficit, "pay".
而中国、日本等亚洲国家和石油生产国居民则是储蓄过度，长期贸易顺差，积累起大量的美元储备。

While China, Japan and other Asian countries and oil producers resident is savings, and long-term trade surplus, built up a large amount of dollar reserves.
这些美国经济体外的美元储备需要寻找对应的金融资产来投资，这就为华尔街金融衍生品创造、美国本土资产价格的泡沫化提供了基础。

These United States economies outside the reserve needs to find the corresponding financial assets to invest, this financial derivatives created for Wall Street, United States provides the basis of local asset-price bubbles.
2、贫富差距加大，消费信贷迅速膨胀Gap between rich and poor, explosion of consumer credit。

先来看一组数据：从1971年到2007年，美国企业平均工资从每小时17.6美元降到了10美元；See it first set of data: from 1971 to 2007, the United States Enterprise average wages fell from us $ 17.6 per hour, US $ 10;
同期，美国企业高管与普通员工的工资差距，从40:1扩大到了357:1；Over the same period, the enterprise executives and ordinary employees of the pay gap, taken from expanded to 357:1
同期，美国民众的消费信贷从1200亿美元扩张至2.5万亿美元；The same period, the United States popular consumer credit expansion from $ 120 billion to $ 2.5 trillion;
2007年美国的房地产住房抵押贷款市场规模达11.5万亿美元，相当于GDP的83%。

2007 United States real estate mortgage market at US $ 11.5 trillion, equivalent to 83% per cent of GDP.
中低收入的人群的收入显著下降，那么，美国人靠什么维系原有的生活水平？Marked reduction in the income of the low-income population in, well, what Americans maintain the original standard of living?
答案很简单：借贷！The answer is simple: loan!
3、美国政府不当的房地产金融政策。

United States real estate of improper government financial policy.
在上世纪30年代的大萧条时期，美国为了拉动内需，罗斯福新政的决策之一就是设立房利美，为国民提供住房贷款。

In the early 30 's during the great depression, United States in order to boost demand, one of Roosevelt's decision was the establishment of Fannie Mae, provide housing loans for the nationals.
1970年，美国又设立了房地美，规模与房利美不相上下。

In 1970, the United States has also established a Freddie, scale and Fannie Mae counterparts.
两个公司因享有政府隐性担保的特权，其发行的债券与美国国债有同样的评级。

Two companies entitled to implied Government privileges, bonds issued by the United States Treasury bonds have the same rating.
从上世纪末期开始，在货币政策宽松、资产证券化和金融衍生产品创新速度加快的情况下，“两房”的隐性担保规模迅速膨胀，在迅速发展业务的过程中，“两房”忽视了资产质量和资金结构的合理性。

Starting from the last century, easing in monetary policy, asset
securitization of financial derivatives innovation speed and speed up the case, "two rooms" implicit guarantee of rapidly expanding, in the process of rapid development of business, "two rooms" ignoring the rationality of asset quality and capital structure.
4、金融衍生品的“滥用”，助长了投机。

Derivatives of "abuse", fuelling speculation.“两房”通过购买商业银行和房贷公司流动性差的贷款，通过资产证券化将其转换成债券在市场上发售，吸引投资银行等金融机构来购买，而投资银行利用金融工程技术，再将其打包出售。

"Two houses" by buying illiquid loans of commercial banks and mortgage companies, through asset securitisation will convert it into a bond sale in the market, attracting investment banking for financial institutions to buy, and investment banking using financial engineering techniques, and then package it for sale.
最终以至于没有人再去关心这些金融产品真正的基础价值，这就进一步助长了短期投机行为的发生。

And concerned about the financial products in the end that no one really basic values, which further contributed to the occurrence of short-term speculation.
5、宏观调控不当。

Macro-control properly.
美联储为了有效调控经济，格林斯潘首先是在2003年之前多次降息，从5%降到1%。

For effective regulation of the economy of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan repeatedly cut interest rates before the first was in 2003, from 5% per cent to 1%.
降息使贷款成本下降，诱使很多人靠次贷买房，促成了房地产“泡沫”。

Interest rate cut loan costs dropped, induces a lot of people rely on subprime mortgage to buy a House, contributed to the real estate "bubble".
而后美联储为了治理通货膨胀，又连续13次调高了存贷款利息，到2006年初由最初的1%调到了5.3%。

Then the Federal Reserve to curb inflation, raised its deposit and lending interest rates 13 times in a row, in early 2006 by the original 1% call to the 5.3%.
因为利息高了，还贷的成本也就高了，本金滚利息，越滚越大，加重了还贷者的压力。

Because of the high interest rates, loan costs are high, principal rolling interest, more rolling bigger, heavier pressure on loan.
美联储主导贷款利息前降后升的“U”型走势种下了祸根，致使很多人次贷低息买房，而后又高息还款难，最终引发了危机。

After Fed-led loan interest reduction before the rise of the "u" planted the seeds of the trend, many people low interest loans to buy, then the high interest rate repayment difficulties, eventually caused the crisis.
6、房地产市场失衡。

The real estate market imbalances.
美国房地产从2006年开始降温，“泡沫”破裂后，房地产价格大跌，原来售价100万美元的房子，现在只能卖到60万美元左右，出现了房地产全面缩水和下跌的局面。

United States cool the property beginning in 2006, the "bubble" following the collapse of real estate prices have fallen, the original price of us $ 1 million House, now only sell for about $ 600,000, there have been real estate comprehensive shrink and fall situation.
这使最终指望卖房子还贷款的人始料不及，房价下跌到卖房子也还不上贷款的地步，次贷危机终于浮出了水面，引发了金融危机。

This eventually expect to sell my house loan
unexpected, prices fell to sell my house is still not on the point of loan subprime crisis finally emerged, triggering a financial crisis.
7、金融机构推波助澜。

Financial institutions to make waves.
金融机构为了追求利益最大化，便竞相炒作房地产贷款的证券和债券，炒来炒去，炒得扩大化了，波及到全球，把很多国家和银行都卷了进去，从而引发世界性的金融波动和风险。

Financial institutions in the pursuit of maximizing will compete to hype real estate loan stock and bonds, fried fried, fried enlargement, spread to the world, volume in many countries and banks, triggering global financial volatility and risk.。