Lighting the way: Perspectives on the global lighting market
Second
edition
Lighting the way: Perspectives on the global lighting market
4
Foreword
The 2011 edition of “Lighting the way: Perspectives on the global lighting market” gave
a comprehensive perspective on the global lighting market and received overwhelm-
ingly positive feedback from across the lighting community. This year’s edition features
updates on the findings presented in that report. It addresses recent changes in the
market environment and puts additional emphasis on the increasing volatility of the
macroeconomic environment and the accelerated price erosion of LED components.
This year, McKinsey has leveraged an even broader variety of sources and stakeholders
to cross-check key assumptions of the updated McKinsey 2012 Global Lighting Market
Model and substantiate the views on development of the lighting market as well as key
industry trends. The source base was expanded by a lighting industry panel consisting
of multiple players along the lighting value chain – lamp and fixtures companies (Dialight,
Gerard Lighting Group, Osram, and the Panasonic Corporation, among others); LED light
engine and driver companies (including Bridgelux, NXP Semiconductors, and Xicato);
and lighting product wholesalers (Rexel, Solar, and Sonepar, for example). Multiple
companies from other value chain steps also took part, such as lighting control system
providers and electrical product retailers.
McKinsey has been working extensively in the lighting industry for many years, investing
over USD 3 million on primary research through McKinsey’s global LED Competence
Center. McKinsey is also heavily engaged in adjacent industries, such as the clean-tech
industry, and has brought out publications such as “McKinsey on Sustainability &
Resource Productivity” and “Capturing opportunities in energy efficiency.”
This updated report “Lighting the way: Perspectives on the global lighting market” was
funded by McKinsey and draws upon the firm’s accumulated industry insights together
with synthesized data from external sources. The appendix contains a full list of refer-
ences and additional details of the assumptions supporting the findings in this report.
We assume that readers will be familiar with last year’s report, and often draw compari-
sons with statements and figures mentioned in that publication.
Forecasts in this publication cannot offer any guarantees of a specific future path, as
many uncertainties underlie the development of the market and the industry. However,
McKinsey’s research reveals clear indications of the trends described, and we very
much hope this report will be of assistance to stakeholders in this industry.
5Lighting the way:Perspectives on the global lighting market
Contents
Executive summary
71. Highly dynamic environment
91.1 Volatile economic context
91.2 Accelerated regulatory intervention worldwide
111.3 Transformation of the energy mix under way
122. U pdate on the global lighting market
142.1 Macroeconomic change affecting all applications
142.2 Factors fueling the further uptake of LED
163. D eep dive on the general lighting market
233.1 Applications: Faster LED price erosion having varying impact
233.2 G eographies: Asia continues to lead the global LED general lighting market
263.3 M arket segment by product grade: Commodity segment on the rise
304. S hifting industry landscape
324.1 Disruption of the industry structure
324.2 New downstream business opportunities
36Appendices 41
A. Definition and scope of each lighting market category
41B. McKinsey’s 2012 Global Lighting Market Model
42C. Additional key exhibits
50D. Bibliography 53
6
Important notice
This market report has been prepared by a McKinsey team on the basis of public sources
and proprietary information gathered by the McKinsey global LED Competence Center
via market and industry surveys. Other information used includes McKinsey’s 2011 Global
Lighting Professionals and Consumer Survey; inputs from a broad industry panel; the
Pike Research Global Building Stock Database 2012; the US Department of Energy 2012
Multi-Year Program Plan; and other sources (please refer to Appendix D for a full list of
references). In preparing this market report, the team has relied on the accuracy and com-
pleteness of the available information and has not undertaken independent verification of
the accuracy or completeness of such information.
Neither the market report nor any part of its contents are intended or suited to con-
stitute the basis of any investment decision (including, without limitation, to purchase
any securities of any listed company or in connection with the listing of any company)
regarding any company operating in the market covered by this market report or any
similar markets.
This market report contains certain forward-looking statements. By their nature, forward-
looking statements involve uncertainties because they relate to events that may or
may not occur in the future. This particularly applies to statements in this report contain-
ing information on future developments, earnings capacity, plans and expectations
regarding the business, growth and profitability of companies operating in the market
covered by the lighting market or any similar markets, and general economic and
regulatory conditions and other factors that affect such companies. Forward-looking
statements in this market report are based on current estimates and assumptions that
are made to the McKinsey team’s best knowledge. These forward-looking statements
are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual situations
and developments to differ materially from and be better or worse than those expressly
or implicitly assumed or described in these forward-looking statements. The market
covered by this report is also subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could
cause a forward-looking statement, estimate, or prediction in this market report to
become inaccurate. In light of these risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, future events
described in this market report may not occur, and forward-looking estimates and fore-
casts derived from third-party studies that have been referred to in this market report
may prove to be inaccurate. In addition, McKinsey does not assume any obligation to
update any forward-looking statements or to conform these forward-looking state-
ments to actual events or developments.
McKinsey does not assume any responsibility towards any persons for the correct-
ness and completeness of the information contained in this market report.
7
Lighting the way:Perspectives on the global lighting market Executive summary
The findings in McKinsey’s 2011 “Lighting the way” report – the first to provide a holistic view of the fragmented and complex global lighting industry – still hold true in general today. The market is on a clear transition path from traditional lighting technologies
to LED. However, world events over the past year have given clearer contours to the light-ing industry’s development, and some market parameters have shifted or accelerated.
On the one hand, the world’s ongoing financial turbulence and Europe’s debt crisis have inevitably had a negative impact on global and regional economic growth, both actual and projected. This has also adversely affected the lighting market. On the other,
regulation across the globe has become more
stringent, fueling the penetration of more energy-efficient light sources, such as LEDs. For example, China has now passed legislation to ban incan-descent lightbulbs. Governments have also
reacted to the disaster in Fukushima by debating
(and in some cases deciding on) a nuclear phaseout. This is expected to boost the uptake of low-energy light sources that help to close the looming energy gap.
Another vital metric has altered. LED prices have eroded more aggressively, pulling forward the payback time of LED lighting. The inflection point for LED retrofit bulbs in the residential segment, for example, is now likely to be around 2015. McKinsey’s 2012
Global Lighting Market Model calculates the LED share in general lighting at 45 percent in 2016 and almost 70 percent in 2020 – 2 and 5 percentage points higher, respectively, than predicted in 2011.
Both the shifting macroeconomic context as well as the accelerating LED price erosion have affected long-term forecasts of the size of the lighting market. The updated McKinsey market model indicates revenues of around EUR 100 billion for the global market in 2020 – a decline of over 5 percent versus last year’s forecast. The total market is expected to grow annually by 5 percent through to 2016, and by 3 percent thereafter until 2020.
A breakdown by sector shows that general lighting has been impacted the most. The
forecast of market size for this segment in 2020 is
around EUR 83 billion – some EUR 5 billion lower than last year’s projection.
The figures for automotive lighting (represent-
ing around 20 percent of the total market) have
changed only slightly. Adjustments to vehicle unit production and sales forecasts due to macroeconomic volatility have partially been offset by a modified methodology. In addition, lower exposure to LED price erosion given the smaller LED share in this segment has further reduced the impact of market changes. The revenue outlook has remained stable, at around EUR 18 billion by 2020. Backlighting, by contrast, is antici-pated to shrink faster than previously estimated. Lower sales forecasts for LCD TVs and monitors, accelerated penetration of OLED (organic light-emitting diode) products, as well as higher LED price erosion are key contributors to a swift decline in market size, falling to EUR 1.0 - 1.5 billion by 2016.
The market is on a clear transi-tion path from traditional light-ing technologies to LED Regulation across the globe has become more stringent, fueling the penetration of more energy-efficient light sources LED prices have eroded more aggressively, pulling forward the payback time of LED lighting The total market is expected
to grow annually by 5 percent through to 2016, and by 3 per-
cent thereafter until 2020
8
As last year, general lighting was divided into seven applications: residential, office, shop, hospitality, industrial, outdoor, and architectural lighting. The faster LED price erosion has raised forecasts for LED penetration in many of the segments – office, shop, and hospitality, for example, while decreasing the size of the lighting market overall by value. Forecasts for LED uptake in the residential segment remain high, at almost 50 percent in 2016 and over 70 percent in 2020. Architectural lighting remains the early adopter, and its LED market share is expected to reach close to 90 percent by 2020.
In terms of the regional split, Asia is expected to account for approximately 45 percent of the global general lighting market by 2020. Asia currently leads the market transi-tion to LED in general lighting, driven especially by swift penetration in Japan and
China. A new analysis this year – market seg-
ment by product grade for global general light-ing – reveals that the fastest growth is in the commodity segment, forecasting an increase of EUR 10 billion by 2020. Again, it is mainly Asia driving growth in this market segment.
Meanwhile, disruption of the industry structure is becoming more apparent. Value in the LED chip and package market is set to shift from backlighting to general lighting, and players are beginning to expand downstream along the value chain. The evolv-
ing LED market is impacting industry dynamics
along the entire general lighting value chain, with effects on light engine standardization, the fixtures market, replacement versus new instal-lation, and channel mix.
New business opportunities are also emerging as the industry landscape is redrawn. The lighting control system market is already mushrooming, with a growth rate antici-pated at almost 20 percent p.a. through to 2020. While office is currently the largest segment in this area, expansion is expected in residential and outdoor. Service-related
businesses in the fields of maintenance, technical
solutions, and financial services represent merely the beginning of what promises to be a new era of business models in the lighting arena.
The transition of the global lighting market
towards LED is triggering and accelerating ever
more pronounced discontinuity in industry structures. Players will be well advised to analyze the coming repercussions in their segment of the value chain, and position themselves for change. Asia is expected to account for approximately 45 percent of the global general lighting market by 2020Value in the LED chip and pack-age market is set to shift from backlighting to general lighting The lighting control system market is already mushrooming, with a growth rate anticipated at almost 20 percent p.a.
9
Lighting the way:Highly dynamic envirnonment The global lighting market is impacted by multiple factors – three are particularly impor-tant. The first is the macroeconomic situation, which is influencing new construction and consequently the number of new lighting installations. Second, energy efficiency regulations and greater energy awareness are redefining future lighting product portfo-lios. And third, government action limiting certain energy sources – key being nuclear power due to events over the last year – will result in additional demand for energy-efficient products, such as LEDs. Assessing these environments for change is vital to understand current and (probable) future shifts in the global lighting market.
1.1 Volatile economic context
The global economic situation has developed less favorably than expected since mid-2011, leading to downward adjustments of the 2016 GDP forecast by approximately 2 percent.1 This adjustment stems from a number of unfavorable developments fueled by the aftermath of the global financial crisis and Europe’s ongoing debt crisis.
According to political commentators, Europe’s debt crisis increasingly threatens the region’s economic stability without a visible and unified strategy to counter the effects. Analysts have pointed to the bailout of Greece in Q1 2012, a parallel government crisis in the country, and disagreements between governments at an EU level on how to best tackle fiscal issues.2 Europe’s 2016 GDP forecast has been lowered by 3 percent com-pared to 2011 (Exhibit 1). Europe’s struggles impact the world economy as the region contributes almost 30 percent to global GDP.3
1. Highly dynamic environment
1
IHS Global Insight (March 2011); IHS Global Insight (March 2012) (b). 2
Financial Times Deutschland (June 2012).3
IHS Global Insight (June 2011).4 IHS Global Insight (March 2011); IHS Global Insight (March 2012) (b).
Exhibit 1
10
Emerging countries are no exception. Standard & Poor’s has just recently down-
graded India’s debt rating due to the country’s high deficits, relatively low growth rate,
and the lack of much-needed economic reforms.5 China and Brazil have also dipped
below their long-term growth trend.6
These updated and more conservative economic forecasts are having an impact on light-
ing market forecasts. However, a clear distinction needs to be made between translating
economic forecasts to the luminaire and the lamp markets. (Please refer to Exhibit 25 in
Appendix C for a definition of the lighting product value chain.)
The market for luminaire and lighting system control components is predominantly
driven by new installations. New installations are linked to construction activity, and
there is a clear correlation with GDP. This is supported by the fact that heavy invest-
ments in the installation of fixtures are more likely to be postponed when the economy
is under strain. However, the lamp market is mainly driven by replacements. The lat-
ter is a market by nature more resilient to overall macroeconomic trends: it depends
almost solely on the number of installed sockets and the lifetime of the technologies in
place. Even if incomes deteriorate significantly, consumers will still need to replace a
failed light source. The lamp market therefore correlates with GDP to a lesser degree.
A correlation analysis of both global lamp and luminaire markets with GDP for 2005 to
2011 substantiates these assumptions (Exhibit 2).
Exhibit 2
5 Reuters (April 2012).
6 Center for Economic and Policy Research, Brazil (March 2012); Channel News Asia (March 2012).
7 IHS Global Insight (June 2012); CSIL (July 2011); Frost & Sullivan (August 2011).
11
Lighting the way:Highly dynamic envirnonment 1.2 Accelerated regulatory intervention worldwide
Besides macroeconomic developments, regulation affecting lighting products is a key determinant of the future lighting market. Governments around the globe are acceler-ating initiatives in this field along two dimensions. Banning inefficient technologies is one. The other is to pass more stringent legislation on energy efficiency requirements and offer incentives for entire building infrastructures. This path will further propel energy-efficient lighting technologies, such as LEDs.
Bans on specific technologies are being passed in ever more countries for both residen-tial (Exhibit 3) and commercial lighting products. China has recently amended a procla-mation to ban incandescent lightbulbs 8 – legislation is backed by the country’s energy conservation law.9 Europe is further accelerating the switchover to more ecological lighting sources by extending its regulations to ban low-voltage halogen lamps.10Second, legislators are increasingly extending energy efficiency requirements and incen-tives to entire building infrastructures. The EU has for example ruled that by 2020, all new building structures should consume “nearly zero” energy.12 Corresponding design
standards and ratings classifying energy efficiency are finding widespread and growing adoption across geographies, such as BREEAM in the European Union,13 CASBEE in Phaseouts advanced by 2 years All GLS by 2016 Applicable to comparable
HAL technologies Exhibit 3
8
National Reform and Development Commission (2011). 9
The Central People’s Government of the People’s Republic of China (2007).
10 European Lamp Companies Federation (February 2012).
11 McKinsey & Company (2011); The Central People’s Government of the People’s Republic of China (2007);
Bureau of Energy Efficiency (2010); European Union (2009); ConsultantPlus (2011); Government of Brazil (June 2011).
12 European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (October 2010).13 BREEAM (2012).
12
Japan,14 and standards for green construction in China.15 In the US, LEED and the newly
introduced International Green Construction Code (IgCC) are being adopted by an ever
greater number of local jurisdictions.16 In South Africa, laws were passed in late 2011
to ensure that new buildings meet specific energy efficiency requirements.17
In addition to regulatory action, global campaigns to raise awareness have been put
in place to emphasize the role that energy-efficient lighting can play in reducing global
energy consumption. A prominent example of this is the en.lighten initiative by the
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and key lighting players.18 Another is
The Climate Group’s LightSavers program, which has recently been further accelerat-
ing its activities.19
1.3 Transformation of the energy mix under way
As noted in our 2011 report, the nuclear disaster in Japan in Q1 2011 has already
impacted energy requirements there. The majority of residents and local govern-
ments strongly oppose continuing on the nuclear power path,20 and this is affecting
the Japanese government’s energy policy. Following the earthquake disaster, all
Japanese nuclear plants were shut down. Only selective plants are being permitted
to run again – a complete phaseout is currently being debated.21 A definite policy shift
would create huge electricity supply shortages and lead to hikes in electricity costs.
Japan is generally highly dependent on nuclear power, which covered around 30 percent
of Japan’s energy mix before the disaster due to the country’s lack of natural resources.22
Although the Japanese industry is eager for nuclear power to avoid higher electricity
prices, the future energy mix is expected to now shift towards more non-nuclear sources,
including renewables.23
Germany’s government has also implemented a fundamental shift in energy policy by
shutting down eight of its 17 nuclear power stations and committing to nuclear-free
energy production by 2022. These decisions were made less than a year after initially
extending nuclear power station lifetimes.24 These nuclear shutdowns will result in
gaps in energy production based on today’s energy mix. Nuclear energy supplied
almost 18 percent of Germany’s electricity demand in 2011.25
On the energy supply side, these developments will accelerate the penetration of renew-
able energy sources. The demand side will also need to alter its practices as greater
energy efficiency will help to close the energy supply gap. The lighting market, which con-
sumes approximately 20 percent of total electricity generation,26 can greatly contribute
by providing energy-efficient lighting solutions, such as LEDs. The broader application
14 Japan Green Building Council (2012).
15 Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People’s Republic of China (MOHURD) (2012).
16 International Code Council (2012) (a); International Code Council (2012) (b); U.S. Green Building Council (2011).
17 Urban Earth (November 2011).
18 en.lighten (2012).
19 LEDs Magazine (February 2012).
20 The Mainichi (July 2012).
21 Spiegel Online (July 2012); BBC News (May 2012).
22 World Nuclear Association (June 2012).
23 The Wall Street Journal (March 2012).
24 Sueddeutsche.de (June 2011).
25 Spiegel Online (December 2012).
26 en.lighten (2012).
13
Lighting the way:Highly dynamic envirnonment of LEDs would decrease energy consumption levels to such a degree that the energy output of multiple nuclear reactors could be saved across geographies (Exhibit 4). Assuming an average usage pattern per installed light source in any given country allows calculation of the energy consumption per technology. The energy efficiency of LED exceeds that of other existing lighting technologies. Thus, increasing LED penetration reduces total energy demand. In the case of Germany, the transition to the 2020 LED base – as calculated in this report’s 2012 model – would save energy equivalent to the capacity of three nuclear reactors. It is worth noting that this will potentially not just benefit nations with concrete phaseout plans. It will also support those that plan to add to their nuclear production capacity.
Overall, the trend away from nuclear energy is therefore expected to give a further boost to energy-efficient lighting, fueling LED penetration.19 x 17 x Exhibit 4
27 Proprietary McKinsey Nuclear Model (Q1 2012); IAEA (2012); Enerdata (2012); POLES (2012).
14
Last year’s report highlighted the size of the lighting market and its subsegments, as well as its swift growth due to LED penetration. For the 2012 report, McKinsey reviewed the forecast of the market size by conducting interviews with a broad range of industry insiders and experts as well as updating McKinsey’s Global Lighting Market Model. McKinsey forecasts slightly faster LED penetration in the mid to long term than was anticipated in 2011 due to the more aggressive LED price erosion experienced over the last year. The depressed macroeconomic situation worldwide combined with faster LED price erosion results in an overall lighting market forecast for 2020 that is slightly lower than last year’s forecast.
2.1 Macroeconomic change affecting all applications 28
The three major sectors in lighting are general lighting, automotive lighting, and back-lighting. General lighting is the largest, and was again (as last year) classified into
seven applications for the purposes of this report: residential, office, shop, hospitality, industrial, outdoor, and architectural lighting. (Please refer to Appendix A for a detailed definition of general lighting applications.)
As in 2011, the scope of McKinsey’s market model includes general lighting at the light source, ballast, fixture and lighting system control component levels, automotive
light sources and fixtures, and backlighting at the light source level. Light sources are defined as bulbs/tubes in traditional lighting, and as LED modules/light engines and LED lamps in LED lighting. (Please refer to Exhibit 25 for a definition of the value chain.) As last year, this report does not include other lighting applications, such as signal, sign display, or medical lighting. Machine vision lighting, light sources for projectors, optical devices, sensors, and other electronic equipment are also not in scope.
The global lighting market is expected to have revenues of over EUR 100 billion in 2020, with 5 percent annual growth from 2011 to 2016, and 3 percent growth p.a. from 2016 to 2020 (Exhibit 5) based on McKinsey’s updated 2012 Global Lighting Market Model. The overall market size in 2020 declined by around EUR 7 billion from last year’s fore-cast. This is mainly caused by the heavier projected LED price erosion together with the slower macroeconomic growth expected compared to last year. As in last year’s report, market sizes are calculated based on producer prices. If the model’s calcula-tions were based on retail prices instead, including both the wholesaler’s and retailer’s margins, market sizes would almost double.
General lighting
General lighting is the largest lighting market, with total market revenues of approximately EUR 55 billion in 2011, representing close to 75 percent of the total lighting market. This is expected to rise to around EUR 83 billion by 2020 – around 80 percent of the total mar-ket. The 2020 market size estimate is EUR 5 billion lower than last year’s forecast. While LED lighting is anticipated to penetrate faster (mid to long term) due to greater LED price erosion, the speedier drop in the price of LED lighting (described in the next section) is 2. U pdate on the global lighting market
28 Please also refer to section 1.1 (pages 11 to 13) in McKinsey’s 2011 “Lighting the way” report.
15
Lighting the way:Update on the global lighting market likely to slow down overall growth in the general lighting market. This adds to the impact of slower GDP and construction investment growth being forecast.
A major change since last year’s edition is that the scope of general lighting also includes the market for lighting system control components for the residential sector. This is due to an increase in the importance of lighting control systems in the segment.29
Our calculations of market size do not include OLEDs for general lighting, analogous to last year, as the extent to which OLEDs will penetrate the general lighting market is still unclear. This results from a number of current OLED penetration barriers. First, the price of OLEDs is far higher compared to non-organic LEDs, although they are less efficient and have a shorter lifetime.30 Another aspect is that LED-based products – the emerging LED edge-lit light guides, for instance – can easily deliver the form and performance advantages of OLEDs at lower prices.31 While OLEDs are enhancing their features, LEDs are also improving. OLEDs are aiming to achieve an efficacy of 140 lm/W in 2020, but LED packages are expected to achieve an efficacy of over 220 lm/W.32 There will be no reason for OLEDs to more broadly penetrate the general lighting arena anytime soon unless they can provide clear benefits versus LEDs.
Chapter 3 will examine each of the applications in general lighting in greater detail by current status, revenue forecast, technology split, and geography.
29 NanoMarkets (February 2012).
30 The current OLED panel’s efficacy is almost half that of LED packages, at one-third of the lifetime. OLED’s luminaire price is more than 50 times that of LED lamps on a dollars-per-kilolumen basis (US Department of Energy, April 2012).
31 US Department of Energy (April 2012).
32 Ibid.
Exhibit 5
16
Automotive lighting
The automotive lighting market is growing steadily. The 2011 market size is estimated at
EUR 14 billion, representing approximately 20 percent of the total market. This is expected
to climb to EUR 18 billion by 2020. Our 2011 report used vehicle unit sales forecasts for
both the new installation market and the aftersales market. The 2012 report’s figures are
based on vehicle unit production forecasts for the new installation lighting market and
vehicle unit sales forecasts for the light source aftersales market to capture the lighting
product market even more precisely.33
Change on the automotive lighting market is very limited compared to last year’s fore-
cast. Adjustments to account for the global economic situation mainly have short-term
impact.34 In addition to that, the effects of downward adjustment have been further
reduced compared to last year’s report due to McKinsey’s updated model logic.
Considering production unit rather than sales unit data antedates future sales growth
by the lead time between production and sales dates. Moreover, forecasts for LED
penetration are lower than in general lighting, limiting the impact of LED price erosion
on the overall automotive lighting market. However, the uncertain recent economic
downturn could affect the market more severely in some regions in the short term.
Backlighting
The backlighting market is estimated to have had revenues of almost EUR 4 billion in
2011 at the light source level. The light sources analyzed were LEDs and CCFLs (cold
cathode fluorescent lamps). OLED displays are already penetrating the mobile/smart-
phone market, expanding the market share of OLEDs as they provide higher resolu-
tion than LCD displays.35 Korean and Japanese companies are investing aggressively
in OLED technology development, and OLEDs are expected to replace LEDs even in
large-screen TVs.36 However, our market report does not include the size of the OLED
market as OLED displays use self-light-emitting technology without the need for back-
lighting, eliminating the concept of a light source.
The backlighting market (excluding OLED displays) is expected to shrink faster than
last year’s estimate, to EUR 1.0 - 1.5 billion in 2016. This is because of a lower LCD TV
and monitor sales forecast,37 the swifter penetration of OLED products anticipated in
some applications,38 and the greater LED price erosion.
2.2 Factors fueling the further uptake of LED
LED is regarded as the most promising technology in terms of commercial viability in
2020 from among several kinds of clean technology – such as photovoltaic solar power,
wind power, and electric vehicles. This is the outcome of a proprietary McKinsey survey
in November 2011 (Exhibit 6).
33 IHS Automotive (April 2012); IHS Automotive (March 2012) (a); IHS Automotive (March 2012) (b); IHS Automotive (March 2012) (c).
34 IHS Automotive (May 2011); IHS Automotive (April 2012).
35 Strategies Unlimited (September 2011).
36 Reuters (May 2012); Reuters (January 2012).
37 IMS (April 2012); Strategies Unlimited (June 2010); IMS (June 2011); Strategies Unlimited (September 2011).
38 Strategies Unlimited (September 2011).
17
Lighting the way:Update on the global lighting market Indeed, the price of LEDs is tumbling even faster than anticipated, helping to further drive technology transition. The green revolution in lighting is also continuing apace, with other energy-efficient lighting technologies being acknowledged as a bridge towards full LED penetration. Several factors are coming together to drive even faster uptake of LED lighting than originally anticipated in McKinsey’s 2011 report in the mid to long term.
Aggressive price erosion
Reduction in the price of LEDs has accelerated over the past year, driven by several factors. One is that considerable overcapacity of LED chips and packages has built up due to huge investments in LED chip/package production lines in China.40 The rise in demand for LEDs in the backlighting segment – currently still the largest LED pack-age market segment – has also been slower than projected. The penetration of LED TV has been more sluggish, while OLED penetration in the mobile/smartphone market has been faster than previously anticipated.41 Alongside the price reduction trends trig-gered in the backlighting segment, the low-price LED chips and packages have begun flowing into the general lighting segment,42 especially low- to mid-power range LED components, which are mainly suitable for diffuse area lighting.
The change in the price forecast for LED packages between the period preceding last year’s market report and afterwards is evident from Exhibit 7. LED package price reduction from 2010 to 2015 has accelerated by around 4 percentage points p.a.
Exhibit 6
39
Proprietary McKinsey survey, 2011. The respondent base consisted of over 4,000 management employees at a diverse set of
companies across geographies, without any notable bias towards or against climate change or clean tech. 40
US Department of Energy (April 2012); Strategies Unlimited (September 2011).41
Strategies Unlimited (June 2010); Strategies Unlimited (September 2011).42 https://www.doczj.com/doc/b08113919.html, (March 2012); Nomura (December 2011).
18
Exhibit 7
based on the comparison of various forecasts. LED packages are still one of the larg-
est cost components of both LED lamps and luminaires,44 so the lower LED package
price is greatly affecting these two types of lighting products. Announcements of corre-
sponding price reductions across the industry substantiate this assumption.45
The price premium on LED lighting products still remains high, and the initial purchase
price represents a significant barrier to decision makers when considering an initial
investment in general lighting applications. However, faster LED price erosion is pulling
forward the payback time of LED lighting. Our analysis shows for example that faster
price erosion in residential LED bulbs and office LED tubes is bringing forward payback
time in 2016 by one to two years. It is expected to be less than two years by then in
the residential segment, and around three years in the office application (Exhibit 8).
McKinsey’s Global Lighting Professionals and Consumer Survey last year revealed
that lighting product decision makers will choose LED lighting with two to three years’
payback time on average. This means that the inflection point for the LED retrofit bulb
market in the residential segment could be around 2015 in an accelerated price ero-
sion scenario. (Please refer to Exhibit 26 in Appendix C for last year’s survey results.)
Accelerated technology transition46
Faster LED price erosion is expected to increase the LED lighting value-based mar-
ket share in the mid to long term in all sectors except backlighting. McKinsey’s 2012
Market Model has calculated that the LED lighting market share in general lighting is
43 Strategies Unlimited (September 2011); Strategies Unlimited (June 2010); IMS (April 2012); IMS (June 2011).
44 US Department of Energy (March 2011).
45 LEDs Magazine (March 2012); Smart Planet (April 2012).
46 Please also refer to section 2.2 (pages 20 to 22) in McKinsey’s 2011 “Lighting the way” report.
19
Lighting the way:Update on the global lighting market expected to be 45 percent in 2016 and almost 70 percent in 2020. These figures are 2 and 5 percentage points higher (respectively) than forecast in 2011. It is worth noting that the predicted growth rates of LED’s value- and unit-based contributions vary over the short and mid term. The unit-based penetration speed of LED light sources is pro-jected to accelerate over time. The annual unit share is expected to gain 2 percentage points on average through to 2013, while the increase averages 6 percentage points for the period from 2014 to 2020. In contrast, the value-based penetration speed is set to decrease over time due to a counter effect of declining average sales prices. Annual penetration is forecast to rise by an average of 9 percentage points through to 2014, while growth averages only 6 percentage points between 2015 and 2020.
These differences in the speed of penetration between the short and mid term are in line with related product analogies, such as flat TVs or digital cameras. The uptake of innovative technologies and products typically behaves in a so-called S-curve. The speed of penetration early in the life cycle accelerates in the mid term when crossing the inflection point (e.g., when a viable TCO – total cost of ownership – case comes into place). It then flattens out again in the longer term with a higher degree of saturation. As an example, flat TVs, digital cameras, and smartphones all took much longer to achieve the first 10 percent penetration than the next 10 percent (Exhibit 9).
This S-curve pattern also applies to LED light source and luminaire unit forecasts. All appli-cations (with the exception of the architectural segment) have four- to six-year time win-dows for the first 10 percent penetration on a luminaire unit basis, for instance. Achieving an additional 10 percent penetration is estimated to take only one to three years. As the Faster LED price erosion Exhibit 8
20
Exhibit 9
prime early adopter of LED, the architectural segment is demonstrating even swifter
growth, taking less than a year for each incremental rise of 10 percent.48 However,
this is due to the fact that LED has expanded the application space for the segment
by new products, such as media facades and new kinds of entertainment lighting. In
addition, LED’s advantages, such as RGB (red, green, blue) color controllability and
flexibility, are far more important in this segment than in others, which further drives
above-average penetration rates.
In the automotive lighting segment, the LED lighting’s market share is expected to be just
over 20 percent in 2016 and 36 percent in 2020 – only slightly above our forecast of last
year. Backlighting is the only sector that is anticipated to slightly decrease its share of LED
lighting in 2016 from last year’s forecast, mainly due to the faster erosion of LED package
prices than predicted in 2011 as well as increasing OLED substitution.
In the lighting market as a whole, LED lighting penetration is projected to be around
40 percent in 2016 and over 60 percent in 2020 (Exhibit 10).49
47 S trategy Analytics (May 2012); Strategy Analytics (May 2008); Strategy Analytics (December 2011); Gartner (August 2004);
Euromonitor (July 2012); iSuppli, Worldwide Television Quarterly Market Tracker Q4 (2002 to 2012).
48 McKinsey’s 2012 Global Lighting Market Model; assuming 2009 as first year of notable penetration.
49 P lease note that penetration curves in Exhibit 10 are value based. These curves do not contradict S-curve type penetration
behavior on a unit basis since value-based patterns include price effects that blur results.
照明行业国内外现状及市场分析 作者：点击：0 国内外发展现状： 半导体灯作为典型的绿色照明光源，孕育出诱人的市场前景。LED应用市场的规模，2004年全球超过120亿美元；2010年全球将达到500亿美元，中国将达到600亿元人民币。据中国光学光电子协会统计，国内市场将保持30%以上的成长速度。 据专门对高亮度发光二极管和氮化镓的市场调研公司Strategies Unlimited的主管罗伯特.斯蒂尔表示，由于移动应用的需求巨增（手机，掌上电脑和数码相机）2004年全球高亮度发光二极管市场增长了37%增至37亿美元。斯蒂尔表示，高亮度发光二极管在移动领域的应用的收入为21.5亿美元，占了58%的市场，比2003年增长了7个百分点。不过它在标志、信号以及汽车等领域会稳健增长，会占有13%的市场。至于产品细分，斯蒂尔就表示，白光发光二极管占需求的50%，而蓝/绿光发光二极管就占29%。以生产地区来分，45%的高亮度发光二极管来自台湾，韩国和中国的制造商，而25%是由美国生产。 另外，白光发光二极管在手持应用的全色彩显示背光的渗透率已经达到75%。随着移动应用趋于饱和，高亮度发光二极管的增长速度在未来几年会放缓。因此，斯蒂尔建议那些发光二极管的制造商应该集中在其它应用领域比如说汽车照明领域，更大的LCD背光和交通信号灯领域的应用上。
Sumitomo住友电子向美国CREE公司一年内订购了一亿美元的LED合同，这将是CREE公司一年的全部生产能力，住友很显然是想独霸整个高亮度LED的市场。 以LUMILEDS为例，其功率LED产能每月可以达到10KK左右（其中供亚洲市场每月约2KK-3KK）。台湾功率LED发展始于2002年初，现在由正装芯片向倒装芯片转变，产量刚刚起步，产能每月不足3KK；内地功率LED封装基本以小芯片集成和正装芯片为主，目前已逐步向倒装大芯片过度。 美国从2000年起投资5亿美元实施"国家半导体照明计划"。美国能源部预测，到2010年前后，美国将有55%的白炽灯和荧光灯被半导体灯具替代，每年仅节电就可达350亿美元。
智能照明行业分析报告 一、智能照明发展概况 2014年，智能家居蔚然成风，各行各业摩拳擦掌，意欲赶乘“智能化” 列车。智能家居分六大类：照明管理、电器控制、安防保护、环境调节、健康产品、综合服务，而智能照明又是智能家居中不可或缺的一部分。在照明领域，智能照明逐年升温，大量企业争相迈进，皆试图分得智能照明的一杯羹。目前飞利浦、索尼、通用电气、小米、魅族均已经推出智能灯泡产品。 国内河东电子和毅德智能均推出了自己的智能照明系统，并在工程上得以应用。我们将以美芯晟驱动IC和电容切入智能照明行业。 二、智能照明产业概况 1、产业规模 （1）、根据研调机构NanoMarkets 统计，2013年全球智能照明市场规模约12.87亿美元，虽然目前智能照明市场偏小，不过未来在厂商积极推动以及节能趋势带动下，市场将持续成长，2019年可达87.1亿美元。 （2）、据CSA 对中国2009-2015 年LED 通用照明市场规模的统计和预测，同时保守假设智能照明产品溢价为20%，则2014 和2015 年中国智能照明为行业带来的新增市场空间分别约达260 亿元和360 亿元。 2、市场分析 智能照明目前仍然只是处于推广期，是未来LED市场的趋势，不过在各大系统厂商积极投入、以及节能趋势带动下，智能照明市场潜力巨大。但由于技术原因，国内外均是知名企业在布局智能照明市场。国际智能照明行业知名企业有NXP、Wieland、ABB、施耐德、欧司朗、松下、飞利浦、快思聪，中国智能照明行业领先企业有立维腾电子，
浙江中控，广州河东电子，锐高照明电子，永林电子，雷士照明，广东东松三雄电器、毅德智能。 国内智能照明企业主要分布在江浙沪一带和珠三角地区 江浙沪主要企业：上海永林电子、浙江中控研究院、上海莱得圣智能科技、杭州鸿雁东贝光电科技、杭州鸿雁电器、江苏仰邦光电实业 珠三角主要企业：广州河东电子、广州毅德智能、珠海格林赛威科技、深圳普天智能照明研究院、深圳合广测控、惠州雷士、深圳创胜 3.行业特点 国外技术相对成熟，国内技术日趋完善。 国家相关产业政策支持中国智能照明的发展以及扩大内需带来的发展机遇。 三、LED驱动IC在智能照明中的应用 LED驱动IC在智能照明系统中是必不可少的，只要有用到LED 产品，就会用到驱动IC芯片。目前主要应用在ZigBee智能LED灯以及可控硅调光上。主要用到的IC为MT7860、MT7990、MT7870、MT7882、MT7885系列芯片。做智能照明的企业一般都会要求能过验证，目前正在沟通中的河东电子就要求我们的IC能过EMC/EMI验证。 四、广东主要客户分布 1、广东省各城市市场分析。 广东省智能照明企业主要分布于广州、深圳、珠海、惠州、江门、中山、东莞等城市。 其中深圳的企业最多，市场最大，其次是广州，中山，佛山。
LED照明行业分析报告 1、行业概况 半导体照明是在LED芯片技术快速发展的基础上，伴随着LED应用技术的研究与开发而逐步发展起来的新兴照明领域。LED是一种能够将电能转化为光能的半导体器件，具有节能、环保、安全、寿命长、防震、便于智能控制等特点。早在1907年，人类就发现了半导体材料的通电发光现象，然而直到20世纪60年代，由GaAsP制成的红光LED才真正商用，此时LED发光效率非常低，而且成本非常高，主要应用于高端电子设备的信号指示灯。之后，随着AlGalnPC 材料的出现，LED在光谱的红、橙、黄部分均可得到很高的发光效率，使得LED 应用得到迅速发展，其应用领域包括汽车尾灯、户外大型显示屏及交通信号灯等。20世纪90年代，随着InGaN材料技术的发展，蓝、绿和基于蓝光的白光LED 被研制出来并逐步产业化，LED 的应用领域拓展到背光源、室内外全彩显示屏、广告牌、室内外装饰照明等领域。随着技术进步，LED发光效率不断提高，LED 应用正向更宽广的领域拓展，逐步进入户外照明（如路灯、隧道灯）、景观照明、室内照明、专业照明、大尺寸背光源等领域。 LED产业链包括上游的衬底、外延片和芯片，中游的封装，下游的照明、显示和背光源等应用。
LED产业已形成美国、亚洲、欧洲三大区域为主导的格局。科锐、流明、日亚化学以其在高端芯片领域的技术创新优势，占据LED上游的主导地位。中国台湾地区LED产业近年迅速崛起，其芯片及封装业务在世界范围内具有较大影响力。近年来，我国LED产业发展迅速，在国家政策的支持和下游应用需求的带动下，形成较为完整的LED产业链。我国LED产业主要聚集在长三角、珠三角、闽三角等地区，有一定的产业集群效应。2010年，我国LED芯片产值达到50亿元；LED封装产值为250亿元；LED应用产值达到900亿元。如下图所示，台湾拓璞产业研究所预计未来中国LED产业将持续高速增长，增幅达40%以上，以照明、背光源、显示为主的下游应用领域将保持30%以上的年成长率，预计2012年将达到2200亿元人民币。
中国半导体照明行业市场分析与预测 2018-03-24 09:54:08 文章来源：中国半导体照明网 1、半导体照明行业进展背景与现状 照明方式按照照明光源可分成白炽灯、气体放电灯、固态光源三大类。19世纪以来，白炽灯、气体放电灯（荧光灯、卤素灯）等照明工具得到了逐步的广泛应用，而随着照明技术的进展，以固态光源技术为基础的新一代照明方式——半导体照明开始显现，并凭借其革命性的技术与性能优势得到了迅速的进展。半导体照明是使用LED（Light Emi tting Diode发光二极管）作为光源的照明。 发光二极管是一种能够将电能转化为光能的电子器件，具有二极管的特性。自20世纪60年代世界第一个半导体发光二极管产生以来，作为一种全新的照明技术，LED 利用半导体芯片作为发光材料、直截了当将电能转换为光能，以其发光效率高、耗电量少、使用寿命长、安全可靠性强、环保卫生等优越性，被业界认为是人类继爱迪生发明白炽灯泡后最伟大的发明之一。如下表所示为现时期LED灯与传统照明器具的性能对比： 表1：现时期LED灯与传统照明器具的性能对比 一些发达国家和地区先后出台半导体照明进展的战略打算，并出台相应的举措，促进当地半导体照明产业进展。美国大力进展半导体照明产业，目前已拥有Lumileds公司、Gree公司、Color Kinet ic s（CK）公司，差不多着手启动“下一代照明打算”(NGLI) 。日本差不多完成了“21世纪照明”进展打算的第一期目标，正在组织实施第二期打算，大
力强化进展半导体产业重要性的认识，政府协助标准设立，在完善的技术研发体系下实行技术领先战略，并有强大的政府支撑体系。韩国的进展体会是政府主导下的大企业扩张，采取产业集聚加速进展，并以应用拉动市场。欧盟的“彩虹打算”在2000年7月启动，托付6个大公司、2所大学，通过欧盟的补助金来推广白光发光二极管的应用。 Philips 估量在2018-2020 年半导体照明市场将以平均6%的速度增长。从光源上看，目前要紧依旧以白炽灯、荧光灯为主，按照各国剔除白炽灯的打算，白炽灯泡立即于2020年全部禁用，因此白炽灯泡取代市场给了LED照明厂商极大的商机。LEDinside 估量LED灯泡产值占传统灯泡市场的渗透率，将于2019年达到三成以上。半导体照明是新兴产业，将逐步实现对传统照明的替代，Philips认为目前LED照明对通用照明领域的渗透率约3％，估量LED照明占通用照明领域的比例在2019年将达到50％，2020年将达到80％，LED照明产品将全面进入传统照明领域，成为全球要紧的照明方式。 据统计，目前全球通用照明市场规模为630亿到700亿美元。专门是随着现代社会的经济进展，环境污染和能源消耗问题日益严峻，节能环保的照明方式越来越成为各国政府关注的重点，而半导体照明由于在环保和节能上的杰出性能，逐步得到了各国政府及商业机构的支持和推广。而随着LED芯片价格与发光效率的逐步提升，半导体照明向通用照明各个领域渗透的商业条件也越来越成熟。目前LED实验室发光效率达到了208lm/W，差不多远远优于传统照明方式，在可预期的以后LED的发光效率还会进一步显著提高。 因此，各国政府在半导体的应用领域纷纷推出了补贴打算(补贴额达到了产品价格的30%至55%)，大力鼓舞半导体照明的普及和应用。目前，LED产业已形成美国、亚洲、欧洲三大区域为主导的竞争格局。科锐、流明、日亚化学以其在高端芯片领域的技术创新优势，占据了LED上游的主导地位。中国台湾地区LED产业近年来迅速崛起，其芯片及封装业务在世界范畴内具有较大阻碍力。近年来，我国LED产业进展迅速，在国家政策的支持和下游应用需求的带动下，形成了较为完整的LED产业链，我国LED 产业要紧集合在长三角、珠三角、闽三角等地区，有一定的产业集群效应。 在我国，2018年5月，由科技部颁发了《“十城万盏”半导体照明应用工程试点》，估量在北京、上海、深圳、武汉等21个国内发达都市投资使用100万盏LED市政照明灯具，2018-2019年在全中国完成50个半导体照明示范都市建设工作，应用200万盏LED市政照明灯具。估量在以后几年，半导体照明将随着整个LED产业集群规模的不断扩大，而进入高速进展时期。
前些年说起智能照明，给人的感觉可能是遥远的、不太接地气的。而如今，智能照明已经成为全行业的热点话题。那么面对如此火热的市场，我们不禁会想要去了解一下智能照明的渊源和未来的发展。所以，今天和大家分享的就是关于智能照明的那些事儿。 一、智能照明的爆发期 上世纪90年代，随着调光技术的出现，智能照明开始进入中国市场。然而，受消费者的消费意识、市场环境、产品价格影响，智能照明一直处于缓慢发展的态势。 随着LED照明技术、互联网技术与AI技术的不断成熟，全球智能照明行业也迎来了新的发展机遇，市场规模将不断扩大。 二、智能照明的产业链企业分类 目前而言，智能照明的产业链已经趋于成熟和稳定，而企业分类也逐渐清晰化。 第一类是大平台企业；第二类是通讯运营商；第三类是物联网方案及智能家居系统集成；第四类是智能照明控制系统；第五类是半导体及集成电路；第六类
是照明应用及生产制造；第七类是智慧路灯。 三、智能照明的八大趋势 目前的行业现状来看，智能照明还处在市场爆发的前夜，产业链条上各环节上的大企业都在摩拳擦掌，跃跃欲试。而这是因为未来智能照明有以下这些发展趋势： 1．照明行业将很快进入全面照明智能管理系统时代； 2．智能照明与智能家居的渠道融合，渠道创新与融合是智能照明获得快速发展的必要条件； 3．照明企业将回归照明本业，专业人做专业事； 4．未来智能照明将会形成生态圈与生态圈之间的竞争； 5．智能照明将与健康照明合体，智能照明的最终目的是为人类营造出一个健康舒适的光环境； 6．资本力量将主导智能照明的未来格局。智能照明将在资本力量的推动下进入高速发展阶段，市场话语权仍将牢牢掌控在一线品牌手上。 7．大数据将会加速智能照明升级。未来智能照明将与大数据形成有效链接，并与先进的智能软硬件合体，形成人、环境与智能软硬件之间的多向互动，智能
LED灯市场调查分析 LED灯市场分析报告 一、竞争分析 1、竞争对手分析——传统照明行业 目前LED产品在市场中尚处于导入期，绝大多数消费者对LED了解甚少；LED产品价格高昂，与普通光源在价格竞争上显得很被动，且缺少完整的标准参照，其质量参差不齐，对零售影响极大，制约着其在市场上的大范围推广??这些因素导致很多传统照明企业认为现在并非是大举进入LED市场最好时机。 即使对于已经切入LED照明的传统照明企业来说，有些也并非是不遗余力的。一方面是左手右手互博，这些厂家迫于各方面的原因推动LED照明，同时
也在不断加大其核心产品和主要利润来源的传统照明灯性能的改善力度；另一方面，目前LED成本还偏高，生产和销售的LED灯越多，其边际效益可能越低，传统照明企业对LED的开发力度也相对有限，雷声大、雨点少的可能性偏大。 但相较前几年，越来越多的传统照明企业切入LED已是不争的事实，这些老牌传统照明企业进军LED照明又具有怎样的优势呢？传统照明企业的品牌优势不容忽视，但传统照明厂家进军LED 已不占有渠道和先机优势。LED现在发展比较好的主要集中在景观照明、背光源显示等领域，技术成熟，优势明显、应用广泛，而这部分市场大部分已经被一些占有先机优势的老牌LED企业所占据。在LED大功率的普通照明方面，由于价格和消费者认知等因素的制约，目前还主要是走商业照明的渠道，所以传统照明企业可能不太占有优势。 现在已切入LED的传统照明企业，他们的突破口又集中在哪些方面呢？
LED照明在中国目前还没有完整的标准规范，行业门槛并不算太高，以应用产品推广会比较好。一位接受采访的企业代表表示，LED在家居应用领域，相对来说在芯片、驱动器，整体光效、色温等方面已经逐步成熟，且专业家居市场前景广阔，所以从战略上讲这是一个很好的机遇。 在当今节能环保大气候下，传统光源必将被节能型光源所取代，传统照明企业纷纷关注并投资LED已是一种不可扭转的趋势。但很多国际性的照明企业在很看重LED照明市场的未来的同时并未急于LED产品的销售，而更多地是宣传其家居环境的整体营造或系统制造的理念，这也正是很多国际照明厂家所倡导的“换 灯—换观念—换世界”。而对于LED照明企业来说，这也是和传统照明企业竞争的最大优势。 2.内部条件分析——swot分析 根据我们对LED灯的了解，利用
随着科技的发展和人民生活水平的提高，人们对建筑照明系统提出了新的要求，在满足基本照明需求上，还要求控制智能化、操作简单化、节能高效化，智能照明由此应运而生。 前瞻产业研究院智能照明行业研究小组分析指出，智能照明行业自上世纪90年代进入中国市场，受市场的消费意识、市场环境、产品价格、推广力度等各方面的影响，一直处于缓慢发展的态势。近些年，随着国民经济的快速发展，特别是地产行业的高歌猛进，国内智能照明行业迅速发展，各类智能照明产品纷纷面市，中国智能照明市场规模从2005年的49亿元成长到2009年的137亿元人民币。前瞻产业研究院智能照明行业研究小组分析预测，中国高端智能照明市场5年内容量有望达到2000亿美元。 20世纪90年代开始，国外智能照明系统厂商就已经在中国投资建厂。进入21世纪，国内智能照明厂家和商家也如雨后春笋般迅速发展，涌现出了如瑞郎、百分百照明、清华同方、索博等大小不一的几十家企业，国内智能照明行业进入一个崭新的发展阶段。但由于国外品牌智能照明系统起步早，跨国企业研发实力较强，其产品在创意、质量等方面均走在智能照明行业前端，国内智能照明市场目前是国外品牌的天下。国外品牌占据了国内90%以上的大型公用建筑(如体育场馆、写字楼、酒店等)和70%以上家居智能照明系统的市场份额，国内现有的业内企业目前还无法与之争锋。 与传统照明相比，智能照明可达到安全、节能、舒适、高效的目的，因此智能照明在家居领域、办公领域、商务领域及公共设施领域均有较好发展前景。目前，中国智能照明市场并未成熟，智能照明的应用领域还主要集中在商务领域和公共设施领域，酒店、会展场馆、市政工程、道路交通领域内对智能照明的采纳使用较多;此外，办公建筑和高端别墅项目也有采用智能照明。随着国内智能照明研发生产技术的发展和产品推广力度的加大，家居领域的智能照明应用有望得以普及。 前瞻产业研究院智能照明行业研究小组分析指出，照明是建筑的重要组成部分，随着人们生活水平的提高，对房屋舒适度的需求不断增多，智能照明行业发展前景可期。作为楼宇智能化的重要组成部分，智能照明市场份额也将随之不断增加，产业发展迎来突破。此外，伴随我国房地产市场的不断发展，家用智能照明系统也将进入快速发展时期。智能照明市场前景乐观。 本文作者：贺重阳（前瞻网资深产业研究员、分析师）请尊重版权：本文知识产权归前瞻网所有，未经许可不得转载。
一、我国医药产业的发展现状 医药行业是我国国民经济的重要组成部分，是传统产业和现代产业相结合，一、二、三产业为一体的产业。其主要门类包括：沪上医药人化学原料药及制剂、中药材、中药饮片、中成药、抗生素、生物制品、生化药品、放射性药品、医疗器械、卫生材料、制药机械、药用包装材料及医药商业。医药行业对于保护和增进人民健康、提高生活质量，为计划生育、救灾防疫、军需战备以及促进经济发展和社会进步均具有十分重要的作用。 新中国成立以来，特别是改革开放20多年，我国已经形成了比较完备的医药工业体系和医药流通网络，发展成为世界制药大国。据统计口径：我国现有医药工业企业3613家，可以生产化学原料药近1500种，总产量43万吨，位居世界第二。 改革开放以来，随着人民生活水平的提高和对医疗保健需求的不断增长，医药工业一直保持着较快的发展速度，1978年至2000年，医药工业产值年均递增16.6％，成为国民经济中发展最快的行业之一。 二、我国医药产业在国民经济中的地位 自1997年以来，医药工业在国民经济中的地位稳步提高，主要经济指标占全部工业总额的比重，呈现稳步增长态势。医药行业在国民经济中所占比重不大，以资产为主的规模比重仅为2%－3%，效益指标相对高一些也仅为3%－4%，是我国实现经济效益的稳定来源产业之一，但并未进入支柱产业之列。医药行业与人民群众的日常生活息息相关，是为人民防病治病、康复保健、提高民族素质的特殊产业。在保证国民经济健康、持续发展中，起到了积极的、不可替代的“保驾护航”作用。 三、药品质量管理的三个重要标准 质量是药品的生命，质量无法保证的药品在某种意义上可以说是毒品，不但不能治疗人体疾病，反而贻误治病时机，危及患者生命。要想做好药店里的质量管理工作需要不断地查遗补缺，必须掌握三个标准。这三个标准是其他工作的基础，基础性工作如果做不好，就很难保证药品质量，也就难以达到方便顾客，保证人民用药安全有效的根本目的。 1.购进验收标准。连锁药店的门店没有购进环节，只是接受总部的配送，按照来货跟踪单和零售拨货单验收即可。而单体药店在购进药品时，应注意对供货单位和从业人员的资质进行审核，索取相关资料，包括供货单位的药品经营许可证复印件、营业执照复印件、gsp 或gmp证书复印件，以上均须盖有供货单位的公章；对供货单位销售人员应索取身份证复印件、毕业证复印件、授权委托书原件；另外还有双方签订的质量保证协议。以上资料齐全，才可签订合同，实施采购行为。从资质审查上把好关，不能完全提供以上资料的单位一般资信较差，门店不应与这样的单位发生业务。 验收药品时，须逐批对照实货进行外观性状检查，对品名、规格、批号、数量、生产日期、有效期、生产厂家、批准文号等内容进行检查，发现外观异常者，不能验收入店。 2.在店养护标准。出厂的药品经检测合格后即可进入流通领域，在流通环节最重要的工作就是养护，若不注意养护，合格的药品可能就会变成不合格药品。如部分药品需储存在4～6℃，若温度过高或过低都会造成药物物理或化学成分的改变，造成药品失去治疗作用，成为不合格品；部分药品需要遮光密闭保存；有些需要常温状态下保存，温度过高就会发生危险，高浓度的双氧水溶液在强光照射下，会发生快速分解，造成爆炸。因此，做好药品养护，不只是能够避免不合格药品出现，也是保证营业安全的实际需要。 要做好定期养护工作，质管人员应对每一种药品的储存条件心中有数，严格按照储存要求将药品放在相应区域储存或陈列，店内相对湿度应保持在45%～75％之间，过高过低都要采取措施。若温度过高，一些栓剂就容易溶化，温度过低，一些液体就可能冻结或破裂；湿度过大，易吸湿药品就会吸水分解；湿度过低，过于干燥，药品包装如铝塑包装就容易干裂起边，铝塑与pvc板之间就会出现分离，片剂和胶囊就会直接暴露在空气中，容易受污染变
亚马逊产品开发思路及 市场调研 公司标准化编码 [QQX96QT-XQQB89Q8-NQQJ6Q8-MQM9N]
选品思路及市场调研 判定标准： ☆高质量、高利润、高需求、高性价比、 ☆竞争小、售后低、重量低、体积小 1.选什么样的产品线，什么样的产品，是否可以进入市场 ⑴发现产品—解决不知道买什么的问题 ①站内调研：（相对的滞后）搜索核心关键词，查看类目下的Top Seller/Best Seller/Best Match.每日监测其销售情况，FBA库存及Review,FeedBack增长情况。 ②站外调研：国内外本土网站，供应商资源，展会等。 ③传统线下实体批发店、外贸B2B工厂 ④根据相关客户画像，及相关场景进行冥想，头脑风暴等进行产品拓展。 ⑵市场分析-解决该产品是否可以卖的问题 ①关键词调研法：使用相关软件，输入关键词了解相关平台及卖家的销售状况.选定5个核心关键词，在亚马逊上抓取前20页的搜索结果 ☆搜索结果→市场大致争热度 ☆大卖家（FeedBack超过1000）级别统计，Review超过500的单个Listing,☆大卖家Listing的个数 ☆前5页的平均价格，了解大致的售价情况 ☆前20页Listing的Review 的个数 ☆FBA比例 ☆Listing的创建时间（判断市场热度周期） ☆针对几个重点的Listing进行分析跟踪。 ②使用谷歌adwords 及谷歌趋势分析该关键词的增长趋势。 ③使用Amztracker等第三方工具。
⑶深度分析—探究进入该品类市场的难易程度及如何进入 ①产品生命周期：综合市场容量，竞争环境，发展趋势等分析判断该产品处于商品生命周期的哪一阶段及对策。 ②明确目标市场 消费者关注哪些细分点（质量、安全性、便利、产品设计） 产品有哪些功能 产品价位细分 品牌细分 ③竞争对手分析 竞争对手来源（店铺名、品牌品、规模、行业影响力等） 竞争对手产品策略（质量、价格、市场定位等） 竞争对手供应链（供应商信息、新品开发方式） 竞争对手发展（账号成长、Listing成长、新品及老品、细分市场份额及集中度） 顾客忠诚度和市场形象（Review 分析、产品口碑） 竞争对手反应速度（价格波动敏感度、新品上线速度） Tips:Review数量：一般的Listing Review 数量超过120的，是已经卖了一段时间的，这样的Listing 比较难超过。 ⑶做决定——卖什么（微创新） 最终选择质量高、利润高、低售后、体积较小、重量轻、竞争度一般、关键词调研通过的产品。 同时通过对市场情况的分析，细致分析竞争对手的Review,找出客户对产品的喜好点，及其抱怨，不满之处，痛点。同时收集客户对产品的描述用语及表述习惯。以便我们对产品，产品包装，Listing 描述进行改良。进而增加产品的附加值。 2.找供应商，备库存 ①供应商的审查 ②报价及生产周期 ③找备用供应商
镇痛药市场分析 毒品像一把双刃利剑，在无情地摧毁人的身体的同时又可以充当一位白衣天使，在疼痛难忍的煎熬中帮你疗伤。目前在国外，用毒品药物治疗的研究取得进展，如用盐酸叮丙诺啡和美沙酮替代物戒毒、美沙酮口服剂可以转移吸毒者对海洛因的严重依赖性和减少注射治疗在艾滋病、乙肝人群间的传播等等。目前，约三分之二的患者认为，接受毒品药物替代疗法后，生活质量已有所改善。 随着研究的进展，医学界对毒品类药物在癌痛治疗方面取得了共识，在挽救了许多痛不欲生的患者的同时，也推动了这一类药物市场的迅猛发展。 20世纪90年代初，癌痛治疗渐渐得到医疗界的重视，世界卫生组织提出了癌症三阶梯止痛治疗原则，很多肿瘤医院也相继设置了疼痛治疗科室，把提高肿瘤患者生活质量、有效控制癌痛作为肿瘤患者治疗的一项重要内容。同时，临床止痛效果好、毒副作用较低的药物需求量的快速增长，也拉动了这一领域的市场发展，促进了多种新型治疗癌痛药物的临床评价和应用。目前，临床用于术后镇痛、癌痛的治疗药物主要是非甾体类抗炎镇痛药和阿片类镇痛药这两大类，而阿片类镇痛药即毒品药物的典型代表。 阿片类镇痛药是最古老的镇痛药，也是迄今为止最有效的镇痛药物，因其止痛作用强，在缓解中重度疼痛上具有无可取代的地位。阿片类药物可以抑制痛觉在中枢神经系统内的传导，提高痛阈值，从而增强镇痛作用。当前用于临床常见的阿片类药物有曲马多、吗啡、芬太尼、羟考酮和杜冷丁等。 曲马多：增长后劲十足 曲马多属于胺苯环醇类合成药物，被WHO列为癌痛治疗的第二阶梯推荐止痛药物。在药物同等剂量时，其镇痛强度仅为吗啡的1/5，却明显强于其他非类固醇抗炎药，而且对α-2肾上腺素能受体和5-HT受体也有一定的作用，在两种机制协同作用下发挥疗效，适于中、重度癌痛患者使用。 国内曲马多原料药主要由黑龙江多多药业、辽宁天龙药业、河北中盛制药、山东新华制药4家企业生产。曲马多制剂生产企业及剂型较多，已有片剂、胶囊、分散片、泡腾颗粒、滴剂等87个生产批文。曲马多基本不存在成瘾性，可以长期使用，是首选的中度止痛药物。2004年其样本医院用药为2300多万元，2006年已达到了2830万元，年均增长率为11.52%。目前有近40家企业角逐这一市场，但是产品集中度较高，前5家占据了95%的市场，余下34家仅占5%。 该类药在医保目录中属乙类药物，处方相对管制较松，除可用于癌症疼痛的治疗之外，还可以在骨关节炎、腰椎间盘突出症、肩周炎，以及创伤、术后疼痛使用。从市场趋势来看，曲马多销售增长后劲十足。 吗啡：受释药技术推动 吗啡是阿片类镇痛药中的经典药物，也是日益受到重视的强效药物。其主要制剂品种有速释吗啡片、控缓释吗啡片及吗啡注射液。从整个市场来看，吗啡止痛药物的销售数量日趋平稳，而销售金额增长幅度较大。拉动这一市场的动力除传统的吗啡制剂
关于L E D照明产品的市场现状与前景发展分析【内容摘要】 LED节能灯作为一种新型的照明光源，以节能、健康、环保及寿命长的显着特点，受到了广大人民的青睐以及国家的大力扶持。 本文主要介绍LED照明产品在目前市场上的销售现状与人们对LED照明产品的认知度与信任度。从LED照明产品的参数入手与传统的照明产品进行比较，得出其优势，并分析现有的LED照明产品可以替代的照明光源，再结合现有的国家政策及节能环保的重要性阐述推广LED照明产本的重要意义，最后分析其前景发展趋势。 【关键词】：LED照明、节能环保、政策、发展趋势 一、LED照明产品的介绍 LED是英文Light Emitting Diode的缩写，中文就是发光二极管。是一种半导体固体发光器件，它是利用固体半导体芯片作为发光材料，当两端加上正向电压，半导体中的载流子发生复合，引起光子发射而产生光。LED可以直接发出红、黄、蓝、绿、青、橙、紫、白色的光。? 它实际上也是一种将电能转换成光能的一种电子元件，也具有一般半导体二极管的特性。它发出的光波基本涵盖了全部的可见光。现市场上出现的白光，就是蓝光+荧光粉形成的。目前的白光LED的发光强度、发光效率也都超过了现在的白炽灯和荧光灯。大功率的LED甚至超过了钠灯和钨卤灯。LED的显色性和色温都要好于传统光源。由于
LED是直接的电子运动产生的光源，不是靠热辐射，所以LED的节能效果显着。目前在理论上都还没有比其更节能的发光体。目前我国能源日益紧缺，节约能源是全球共同的目标。通过国家有关部门预测, 2010年我国用电量将达2.7万亿度，照明用电量将超过3000亿度。如果在这个领域上节省50%，那将是1500亿度。所以如何降低照明用电能耗成为了当前迫在眉睫的问题。LED无疑在这个领域有着非常大的应用地位和前景以及无穷的商机。LED作为指示应用已经成熟，作为信号和显示方面也需更进一步的发展。但作为照明应用，应属于起步阶段，而且我们国家也把它列入了863计划。 二、LED照明产品的特征与应用领域 （一）LED的技术特征 1、多变幻：LED光源可利用LED通短时间短和红、绿、蓝三基色原理，在计算机技术控制下实现色彩和图案的多变化，是一种可随意控制的“动态光源”。 2、寿命长：LED光源无灯丝、工作电压低，使用寿命可达5万到10万小时，也就是5年到10年时间。 3、利环保：生产中无有害元素、使用中不发出有害物质、无辐射。 4、高新尖：与传统光源比，LED光源融合了计算机、网络、嵌入式等高新尖端技术。 LED经过几十年的技术改良，其光的单色性好、光谱窄，无需过滤可直接发出有色可见光，发光效率有了较大的提升，技术改进一直在持续中，但是由于LED使用的电源是低压直流电源，与传统的照明灯具
市场及产品分析 一、基地资源分析 1、基地经济技术指标 ■□总用地面积：9500平方M ■□规划总建筑面积：约5万平方M ■□主要建设内容：商业办公综合楼、酒店式公寓及其相关配套设施，其中酒店式公寓面积不超过总建筑面积的20%。 2、基地环境
如图所示，地块位于鼓楼区中山北路与乐业村路交叉口南侧。北临太平洋百货，南靠大方巷加油站，西面隔街即山西路军人俱乐部，东向邻近湖北路。 地块西侧的中山北路是南京城区主干道之一，车流量及人流量大；地块位于湖南路商圈的核心位置，商业氛围浓厚，配套齐全。 基地上建筑包括商业门面、多层及单层住宅，未拆迁。 二、工程SWOT分析及工程定位 1、SWOT分析 S（优势） ■主城中心，区位优势明显； ■位于湖南路商业圈核心，商业氛围浓厚，人气聚集力强；■城市快速干道，路网发达，交通便利； ■邻近鼓楼中心成熟生活密集区，人文环境好。 W（劣势） ■工程车位数量略有不足，较难满足后期需求； ■自2001年取得土地至今已6年，土地年限缩水；■紧邻的大方巷加油站影响工程形象； ■紧邻城市内环干道，噪音、尾气污染较大。 O（机会） ■南京城市中心区域土地出让稀缺，未来同质物业上市量有限； ■湖南路商业圈辐射范围不断扩大，档次提升； ■楼市行情整体走高，主城中心楼盘关注度提高。 T（威胁） ■现阶段区域内上市同质物业竞争激烈； ■区域内竞争工程包装宣传好，工程进度优于本工程；■基地拆迁存在不可确定因素影响； ■绝版地段造成高单价，市场接受度存在风险。
由分析可知，本工程最大的优势在于地处南京城市中心区域和湖南路商圈的核心位置，拥有完善的商业、生活、休闲、购物、娱乐等设施，工程的主要威胁来自现阶段上市的同质物业对潜在客户的分流，以及拆迁过程中的不确定因素对工程进度的影响。 如何有效减小竞争风险，发挥工程特色从而追求利润最大化是工程定位方向所在。 2、工程市场定位 工程市场定位，需要总体上为工程面市寻求一个切入口。根据工程实际情况，市场定位思考如下： 娱乐、休闲、购物——优质生活圈 地块位于湖南路商圈的中心地带，中山北路东侧，商业发达和人气充足是主要特征和先天优势。充分利用这种特征，将其转化成南京主城稀缺地段的优质资源，打造一个集居住、商务、休闲、购物功能于一体的生活圈。
【最新资料，WORD文档，可编辑修改】 第一章智能照明行业概述 智能照明行业自从上世纪90年代进入中国市场以来,受市场的消费意识、市场环境、产品价格、推广力度等各方面的影响,一直处于缓慢发展的态势。行业人士均认为,消费者对智能照明认识不足是市场处于初级阶段是最主要的原因。近些年来,随着国民经济的快速发展,特别是地产行业的高歌猛进,国内智能照明行业迅速发
展,涌现出了各种技术类型的厂家,市场上也出现了各种类型,别具特色的智能开关产品。 1、智能照明应用前景 (1)家居领域——提供舒适的生活空间 随着科技的发展和人民生活水平的提高,人们对家庭的照明系统提出了新的要求,网络开关代替传统开关,智能照明系统代替传统照明系统,是家居智能化过程中的必然一步。 (2)办公领域——在节能中提高效率 随着日常商务事务的日渐繁忙,人们在办公室呆的时间也越来越长,对工作环境的关注也愈加重视,高品质的智能化办公照明进驻办公室,将提升人们的工作效率。 (3)公共设施领域——绿色安全环保 智能化照明在公共设施中的应用也是非常重要的。用智能路灯代替传统路灯,能够随着太阳光线的强弱而自动调节桥下灯光的强弱,既人性化又节能。 2、智能照明发展方向 (1)品牌集成将是智能照明的发展趋势 (2)走向以人为本的科学化照明 (3)满足个性化、层次化的照明 (4)智能技术与新光源及新照明技术的结合,创造崭新的照明文化 3、智能照明控制系统 3.1、系统的结构和组成 智能照明控制系统按网络的拓扑结构，大致有以下两种型式，总线式和以星形结构为主的混合式。 一般由系统单元，输入单元和输出单元三部分组成。除电源设备外，每一单元设置唯一的单元地址，并用软件设定其功能。通过输出单元来控制各负载回路，各种形式的单元简述如下： 系统单元：用于提供工作电源，源系统时钟及各种系统的接口，包括系统电源、各种接口（PC、以太网、电话等），网络桥。 输入单元：用于将外部控制信号变换成网络上传输的信号；如可编程的多功能（开/关、调光、定时、软启动/软关断等）输入开关、红外线接收开关及红外线遥控器（实现灯光调光或开/关功能）、各种型式及多功能的控制板，（如有的提供LCD页面显示和控制方式，并以图形、文字、图片来做软按键，可进行多点控
扑热息痛的市场调研 第一扑热息痛的简介 1.产品概述 中文别名：对乙酰氨基酚、扑热息痛、退热净、醋氨酚、对醋氨酚、索密痛、乙酰氨基苯酚、二醋洛尔。 英文别名：Acetaminophen、4-Hydroxyacetanilide 、APAP、p-Hydroxyacetanilide 、Paracetamol（Acetaminophen）。 含量：99%-101%。 CAS 号：103-90-2 。 分子式：C8H9NO2 。分子量151.16 。 化学结构式： 扑热息痛结构式 质量标准：BP\USP 。 包装：每桶（箱）（编织袋）25公斤。 2.理化性质 白色结晶粉末，无味，溶于水，醚，氯仿等。从乙醇中得棱柱体结晶。熔点169-171℃，相对密度1.293(21/4℃)。能溶于乙醇、丙酮和热水，难溶于水，不溶于石油醚及苯。无气味，味苦。饱和水溶液pH值5.5-6.5。 第二扑热息痛的生产工艺和技术进展 3.扑热息痛常见的复方制剂 扑热息痛常见的复方制剂的名称(或商品名)很多, 如与盐酸苯丙醇胺、马来酸氯苯那敏、氢溴酸右美沙芬、异丙安替比林、盐酸伪麻黄碱、盐酸苯海拉明、咖啡因、阿司匹林分别配伍组成的制剂(药理相同者只取一种); 已上市的品种如散利痛片、氨酚伪麻片、双酚伪麻胶囊和糖浆、双酚伪麻颗粒，咖酚伪麻片等。 第二热息痛的主要工艺研究 1. 主要生产工艺介绍
合成APAP可选择多种化合物作为起始原料，因此它有多种合成路线可供选择。比较廉价的起始原料主要有硝基苯、苯酚和对硝基苯酚。苯酚作为起始原料，可以经亚硝基化、硝基化和偶联氢解法三种合成路线得到中间体PAP，PAP经乙酰化得最终产品APAP。硝基苯是廉价易得的化工原料，所以原料来源和成本较低。硝基苯可用铝屑还原、电解或催化氢化等方法直接制成PAP，经乙酰化得产品。对硝基苯酚钠是染料工业和农药、医药的中间体，该原料产量很大，成本低廉。对硝基苯酚钠经盐酸酸化、铁粉-盐酸还原和乙酰化得到对乙酰氨基酚。 2. 国内主要生产工艺详述 以对硝基苯酚钠为原料的合成路线 合成原理：由氯苯经硝化和水解等反应制得。对硝基苯酚钠经酸化、还原和酰化可制得扑热息痛。 工艺过程： 配料比：对氨基苯酚:冰醋酸:母液(含酸>50%) =1:1:1(质量)。 操作方法：将物料投入酰化釜，用夹套蒸气加热至110℃左右，回流反应4h，控制蒸出稀酸速度为每小时蒸出总量的1/10，待内温升至130℃以上，取样检验对氨基苯酚残留量< 2.5%时，加入稀酸(含量>50%)，转入结晶釜结晶，离心，先用少量稀酸洗，再用大量水洗至滤液近无色，得扑热息痛粗品。 搅拌下将扑热息痛粗品、水及活性炭加热至沸腾，调节pH5.0~5.5，保温5min。将温度升至100℃时，趋热压滤，除去活性炭。 滤液冷却结晶(加适量焦亚硫酸钠)，离心，滤饼用大量水洗至近无色，再用蒸馏水洗涤，离心脱水，干燥得扑热息痛成品。滤液经浓缩、结晶，离心后再精制。 主要存在的问题： 原料供应常常受染料和农药生产的制约，有时很紧张；制备对硝基苯酚钠的中间体对硝基氯苯毒性又很大，且用铁屑/盐酸还原后，产生的铁泥在“三废”防治和处理上也存在困难。而且收率低产品质量不稳定。 3.国外生产工艺介绍 以硝基苯为起始原料的合成路线 以硝基苯为原料制取PAP，原料易得，工艺途径多，降低成本的潜力较大，是近年来研 究的热点。制备方法可分为3种：金属还原法、电解还原法和催化加氢还原法。其中催化 加氢还原法是最优的还原方法。然后将PAP用乙酸酐乙酰化，得APAP产品。 国外的日本三井东压、美国迈尔斯和德国拜耳等公司主要采用电解还原法原理如下：
公司产品市场分析与发展思路（讨论稿） 一、市场背景分析 1、酱腌类产品是人们的日常生活中的快速消费品，人们的消费习惯也随着生活的条件提高随之在发生改变，酱腌食品市场正在饮食文化发展的基础上构建了无限的商机，人们对食品的质量、绿色环保、味道需求更加个性化、人性化，这为公司带来了新的、有价值的机会，同时也带来了新的挑战，“云牌”产品除了进行传统的生产和市场销售以外，同时也步入了以品牌优势，采取多渠道求发展的时期。 2、在涪陵、重庆乃至全国各地，相当数量的酱腌菜生产企业都在积极应对市场的变化，寻求企业产品品牌在生产和市场销售运作的最佳模式。于是，一些原料产地的加工企业也正在渴求品牌企业的合作，部分知名品牌的酱腌菜加工企业已经切入或正在进入西部市场，加大了竞争，有的品牌企业合作门槛低，产品加工质量、成本不一，造成此市场不规范而竞争激烈。 3、国家十一五计划期间对西部六省以及全国的发展战略的确定，以及重庆直辖市城乡一体化发展给公司的发展选项定位带来了机遇和挑战。 重庆雨云食品有限公司就是在这种背景下进行企业调整而面对市场的。 二、市场风险分析 1．优势 （1）公司创立了“云牌”酱腌系列产品品牌，特别是作为中国酱腌菜行业的创新企业，开创了无菌水脱盐、无防腐剂物理保鲜工艺。特别是经过企业领军人16年的不懈努力和发展，在业内和区域市场有较好的形象和声誉，并且“云牌”
已经获得国家驰名商标，是一笔具有期望和潜在的资产和财富。 （2）公司新的产业基地已规划完成，设计形象和档次均优于重庆的同行企业，企业落成在重庆国家农业科技园区后将为树立公司形象、争取农业项目资金、拓展委托加工以及市场开发奠定良好的基础。 （3）公司已经对重庆基地将合作区域的部分企业进行了调研、考察，超前地、系统地掌握了原料产地的情况。因此，与其他竞争对手相比，更具有自身的优势。 （4）“云牌”品牌本身具有可炒作的潜在由头，成功有效的宣传策划，将会提高经销商和消费者购买选择时的认可度。因此，在产品适应不同区域市场和不同消费者的需求的前提下，只要运作得当，一定会使公司产品在销售上拥有相对的心理优势和推广说服力。 2．劣势 ⑴“云牌“目前在全国影响范围不大，品牌知名度不高。做的品牌宣传不足。目前产品的销售市场只是局限于浙江，江苏、长春、内蒙的部分市场，并且有的区域市场局部正在丢失。 ⑵“云牌“目前采取的是松散式的市场销售办法在做市场，没有跟进市场开发和市场培育人员，一但遇到销售困难，很有可能让经销商失去信心，在激烈的市场竞争过程中后不足，产品销售有逐步萎缩的危险。 ⑶公司新建于重庆，许多关系需要重新达建，起步初期人才匮乏。市场的竞争就是人才的竞争，没有人才要做大市场是很难想象的。 （4）贴牌企业与公司的合作提供的条件有待进一步协商和争取，如产品的直接成本、运输成本、加工价格、质量控制、市场销售价格、税收等。
照明行业国内外现状及市场分析 点击：0 国内外进展现状： 半导体灯作为典型的绿色照明光源，孕育出诱人的市场前景。LED应用市场的规模，2004年全球超过120亿美元；2018年全球将达到500亿美元，中国将达到600亿元人民币。据中国光学光电子协会统计，国内市场将保持30%以上的成长速度。 据专门对高亮度发光二极管和氮化镓的市场调研公司Strategies Unlimited的主管罗伯特.斯蒂尔表示，由于移动应用的需求巨增（手机，掌上电脑和数码相机）2004年全球高亮度发光二极管市场增长了37%增至37亿美元。斯蒂尔表示，高亮度发光二极管在移动领域的应用的收入为21.5亿美元，占了58%的市场，比2003年增长了7个百分点。只是它在标志、信号以及汽车等领域会稳健增长，会占有13%的市场。至于产品细分，斯蒂尔就表示，白光发光二极管占需求的50%，而蓝/绿光发光二极管就占29%。以生产地区来分，45%的高亮度发光二极管来自台湾，韩国和中国的制造商，而25%是由美国生产。 另外，白光发光二极管在手持应用的全色彩显示背光的渗透率差不多达到75%。随着移动应用趋于饱和，高亮度发光二极管的增长速度在以后几年会放缓。因此，斯蒂尔建议那些发光二极管的制造商应该集中在其它应用领域比如说汽车照明领域，更大的LCD背光和交通信号灯领域的应用上。
Sumitomo住友电子向美国CREE公司一年内订购了一亿美元的LED合同，这将是CREE公司一年的全部生产能力，住友专门明显是想独霸整个高亮度LED的市场。 以LUMILEDS为例，其功率LED产能每月能够达到10KK左右（其中供亚洲市场每月约2KK-3KK）。台湾功率LED进展始于2002年初，现在由正装芯片向倒装芯片转变，产量刚刚起步，产能每月不足3KK；内地功率LED封装差不多以小芯片集成和正装芯片为主，目前已逐步向倒装大芯片过度。 美国从2000年起投资5亿美元实施"国家半导体照明打算"。美国能源部推测，到2018年前后，美国将有55%的白炽灯和荧光灯被半导体灯具替代，每年仅节电就可达350亿美元。 科技部建议，在将半导体照明产业纳入国家重点进展的高新